Issues and Responses

Climate Change and Agriculture and Forestry - Issues and Responses

This is the first in a series of documents explaining international efforts to address climate change, New Zealand's response and the implications for agriculture and forestry.

What is Climate Change

sweaty globe Climate patterns vary within natural cycles and are affected by natural events such as volcanic eruptions. However, there is now widespread scientific acceptance that human activities that release "greenhouse" gases into the atmosphere are altering the Earth's Climate. The term "climate change" generally refers to changes in the Earth's climate that are expected to occur because of human activities.

Climate Change and its Impact on Agriculture and Forestry looks in detail at the climate phenomenon and its impact on agriculture and forestry.

Has Climate Change already begun?

Climate varies naturally, which makes it difficult to identify the contribution of human activities to global climate change. However, the pattern of temperature change globally and nationally over the past few decades is consistent with the predicted effects of global warming. While many uncertainties remain, scientists believe that "the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate."

What Climatic Changes can be expected?

If nothing is done to reduce greenhouse gas emissions scientists predict that global temperatures will increase by about 2⁰C between 1990 and 2100. The Earth's average sea level is predicted to rise by about 50 cm in this period.

Extreme weather events such as storms, droughts and floods are also expected to change in frequency and intensity, although at this stage nobody can confidently predict how.

How may Climate Change affect agriculture and forestry?

Climate change is likely to have both positive and negative effects on agricultural and forestry production systems in New Zealand. Overall, future climate change can be expected to increase production risks and require changes in the way farmers and growers select and manage their enterprises. Some of the major risks include:

Increased frequency of extreme weather events (e.g. more droughts, high winds and localised flooding)
Increased scarcity of water
Increased pest and disease problems.
Some of the potential benefits include:
Growing new crops and the expansion of existing crops into new production areas
Rising temperatures and C0₂levels may assist the growth of pastoral plants and forestry species.

How does agriculture and forestry impact on Climate Change?

Agriculture is the main source of greenhouse gas emissions in New Zealand. In 1995 the sector was responsible for more than half (58%) of New Zealand's total greenhouse gas effect on the atmosphere. The energy sector contributed 34% and industrial processes 4%. Agriculture finds itself in this role because it is the main source of methane and nitrous oxide emissions in New Zealand. Methane is New Zealand's dominant greenhouse gas. The Role of Agriculture and Forestry in Climate Change looks in more detail at the role of agriculture and forestry in climate change.

Forestry influences global climate patterns because trees and other plants absorb carbon dioxide from the air. New forests, or forests which are increasing in size are referred to as carbon "sinks" and can help reduce the risk of climate change. A greenhouse gas "sink" is any process which removes greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, and in the climate change context is generally applied to forests.

What is being done to reduce the risk of global climate change?

Growing international concern about climate change saw 165 countries negotiate the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) in 1992.

The Convention was a first step in the international effort to address the threat of climate change, and was significantly strengthened by the adoption of the Kyoto Protocol in December 1997. For the first time, developed countries face legally binding commitments to reduce collective emissions of greenhouse gas emissions. New Zealand's target is to stabilise emissions at 1990 levels on average during the commitment period (2008-2012). Climate Change: The International Response provides more detail on these international agreements and New Zealand's response to them.

While New Zealand's target may not seem ambitious at first glance, carbon dioxide (C0₂) emissions during the period 2008-2012 are projected to be 39% percent above 1990 levels, and this is only partially offset by projected reductions in emissions of other greenhouse gases.

The Kyoto Protocol decision to include not only carbon dioxide, but five other greenhouse gases including methane and nitrous oxide in commitments to reduce emissions has significant implications for agriculture.

For forestry, a key outcome from Kyoto was the decision that carbon removals from forests recognised under the Protocol during the commitment period 2008-2012 can count towards meeting a country's commitment.

A third major feature of the Kyoto Protocol was the decision to allow countries the flexibility of using an emissions trading system to help meet their commitments.

What do the international agreements mean for agriculture and forestry?

Agroforestry Agriculture, as the major source of greenhouse gas emissions, will play an important part in New Zealand's strategy to meet its Kyoto commitments. Agriculture has already contributed to meeting this commitment by reducing emissions, primarily through reduced livestock numbers, since 1990. However, from an economy wide perspective, there may be incentives to pursue further

The particular policy measures that will apply to agriculture are not yet well developed. The Government has indicated that it sees the establishment of an emissions trading system as the central element of New Z policy response. Some agricultural sources could potentially be included in an emissions trading Those sectors not included in an emissions trading system will be subject to other measures.

Forestry will play an important role in New Zealand response to Kyoto. Forest growers should be aware that, under an emissions trading system, forests are likely to become a valued resource as carbon "sinks".

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