Situation and Outlook for
New Zealand Agriculture and Forestry
Update
Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry
May 2004
Table of Contents
- Glossary of acronyms and abbreviations
- Introduction and Overview
- Overview of baseline projections
- Background and Assumptions
- Macroeconomic assumptions
- The New Zealand dollar
- Exchange rate scenarios
- Figure 1: NZD/USD historical and future exchange rate assumptions
- Figure 2: NZD/UKP historical and future exchange rate assumptions
- Figure 3: NZD/AUD historical and future exchange rate assumptions
- Figure 4: NZD/yen historical and future exchange rate assumptions
- Figure 5: NZD/Euro historical and future exchange rate assumptions
- Climate
- Figure 6: Days of soil moisture deficit for New Zealand
- Figure 7: Average air temperatures for New Zealand
- Dairy
- Outlook for 2003/04 to 2006/07
- Latest situation and outlook
- Table 1: Dairy situation and outlook
- Table 2: Farmgate milksolids payout: baseline and alternative exchange rate scenarios
- Beef and veal
- Outlook for 2003/04 to 2006/07
- Latest situation and outlook
- Table 3: Beef and veal situation and outlook
- Table 4: Manufacturing cow schedule prices: baseline and alternative exchange rate scenarios
- Sheep meat
- Outlook for 2003/04 to 2006/07
- Latest situation and outlook
- Table 5: Sheep meat situation and outlook
- Table 6: Average lamb schedule prices: baseline and alternative exchange rate scenarios
- Wool
- Outlook for 2003/04 to 2006/07
- Latest situation and outlook
- Table 7: Wool situation and outlook
- Table 8: Average wool prices: baseline and alternative exchange rate scenarios
- Deer
- Outlook for 2003/04 to 2006/07
- Latest situation and outlook
- Table 9: Venison and velvet situation and outlook
- Table 10: Venison schedule prices: baseline and alternative exchange rate scenarios
- Poultry meat
- Pig meat
- Outlook for 2003/04 to 2006/07
- Latest situation and outlook
- Table 12: Pig meat situation and outlook
- Arable
- Outlook for 2003/04 to 2006/07
- Latest situation and outlook
- Table 13: Arable situation and outlook
- Table 14: Arable contract prices: baseline and alternative exchange rate scenarios
- Situation and Outlook for Horticulture Update
- Kiwifruit
- Outlook for 2003/04 to 2006/07
- Table 15: Kiwifruit situation and outlook
- Table 16: Kiwifruit prices: baseline and alternative exchange rate scenarios
- Wine
- Apples
- Outlook for 2003/04 to 2006/07
- Table 19: Apples situation and outlook
- Table 20: Apple prices: baseline and alternative exchange rate scenarios
- Situation and Outlook for Forestry Update
- Outlook for 2003/04 to 2006/07
- Table 21: Forestry situation and outlook
- Table 22: Forestry product prices: baseline and alternative exchange rate scenarios
- Export Outlook
- Baseline exchange rate scenario
- Summary
- Pastoral agriculture
- Horticulture
- Forestry
- High exchange rate scenario
- Low exchange rate scenario
- Figure 8: Comparison of agricultural and forestry export values: baseline/high scenario/low scenario
- Table 23: Pastoral export outlook
- Table 24: Dairy export outlook
- Table 25: Meat export outlook
- Table 26: Horticultural export outlook
- Table 27: Forestry export outlook
- Gross Agricultural Revenue and Expenditure
- Baseline exchange rate scenario
- High exchange rate scenario
- Low exchange rate scenario
- Table 28: Baseline gross agricultural revenue and expenditure
- Table 29: High scenario gross agricultural revenue and expenditure
- Table 30: Low scenario gross agricultural revenue and expenditure
- Annex 1: Macroeconomic Assumptions
Figures
- Figure 1: NZD/USD historical and future exchange rate assumptions
- Figure 2: NZD/UKP historical and future exchange rate assumptions
- Figure 3: NZD/AUD historical and future exchange rate assumptions
- Figure 4: NZD/yen historical and future exchange rate assumptions
- Figure 5: NZD/Euro historical and future exchange rate assumptions
- Figure 6: Days of soil moisture deficit for New Zealand
- Figure 7: Average air temperatures for New Zealand
- Figure 8: Comparison of agricultural and forestry export values: baseline/high scenario/low scenario
Tables
- Table 1: Dairy situation and outlook
- Table 2: Farmgate milksolids payout: baseline and alternative exchange rate scenarios
- Table 3: Beef and veal situation and outlook
- Table 4: Manufacturing cow schedule prices: baseline and alternative exchange rate scenarios
- Table 5: Sheep meat situation and outlook
- Table 6: Average lamb schedule prices: baseline and alternative exchange rate scenarios
- Table 7: Wool situation and outlook
- Table 8: Average wool prices: baseline and alternative exchange rate scenarios
- Table 9: Venison and velvet situation and outlook
- Table 10: Venison schedule prices: baseline and alternative exchange rate scenarios
- Table 11: Poultry meat situation and outlook
- Table 12: Pig meat situation and outlook
- Table 13: Arable situation and outlook
- Table 14: Arable contract prices: baseline and alternative exchange rate scenarios
- Table 15: Kiwifruit situation and outlook
- Table 16: Kiwifruit prices: baseline and alternative exchange rate scenarios
- Table 17: Wine situation and outlook
- Table 19: Apples situation and outlook
- Table 20: Apple prices: baseline and alternative exchange rate scenarios
- Table 21: Forestry situation and outlook
- Table 22: Forestry product prices: baseline and alternative exchange rate scenarios
- Table 23: Pastoral export outlook
- Table 24: Dairy export outlook
- Table 25: Meat export outlook
- Table 26: Horticultural export outlook
- Table 27: Forestry export outlook
- Table 28: Baseline gross agricultural revenue and expenditure
- Table 29: High scenario gross agricultural revenue and expenditure
- Table 30: Low scenario gross agricultural revenue and expenditure
- Table 31: Macroeconomic assumptions
- Table 32: Baseline quarterly exchange rate assumptions: NZD cross rates
- Table 33: High and low scenario quarterly exchange rate assumptions against the NZD
Contact for Enquiries
Monitoring and Evaluation
PO Box 2526
Wellington
New Zealand
