1.0 INTRODUCTION
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This study was commissioned by the Wairoa
District Council (WDC) in conjunction with MAF Policy and
Landcare Research, with the objective of evaluating possible
future socio-economic impacts of land-use change from pastoral to
forestry use in the WDC region. Since 1992 a rapid expansion in
exotic forestry establishment has occurred, much on farmland
previously in pastoral use. The District Council is very keen to
plan for any change of direction the District's
socio-economic circumstances are likely to take in the short,
medium and long-term future, and facilitate the realisation of
opportunities arising from the changes. It is also keen to
mitigate adverse effects of changes where possible with a minimum
of bureaucratic regulation.
The Wairoa District Council expressed a need
for much more information than it currently held on the extent
and effects of this change.
Some of the questions the Council initially
wished to address were as follows.
| (a) | Whether the Council's District Plan, which currently permits forestry on all but "fertile lands", was sufficient to sustain the economic wellbeing of the District. |
| (b) | At what point the diminished carrying capacity of the District's farms would jeopardise the meat processing operations which were urban Wairoa's major employers. |
| (c) | What benefits from increasing afforestation could be identified for the workforce of Wairoa in the immediate future. |
| (d) | How the Council could best plan to ensure that the community would benefit from the changes, given the limited range of options available under the Resource Management Act to influence land use. |
| (e) | What research had been done into the long-term effects of Pinus radiata plantations on soil stability and water quality. |
| (f) | What would be the effect of increased weight and frequency of traffic on local roads at the time of harvest. |
These questions illustrate how a mix of economic and
environmental concerns surround land-use issues at a community
level. In mid 1994 it was commonly believed that the AFFCO
meat-works was in a precarious position because of an
over-capacity of killing facilities on the east coast of the
North Island. The AFFCO works is the major employer in the
District (approx. 15% of the workforce) and also generates a
significant amount of contract work and indirect business in the
retail and service sectors. In addition, much of the employment
generated by recent afforestation had been captured by
contractors residing outside the Wairoa district.
Farmers expressed strong opposition to commercial forestry because of perceived impacts on rural services, rate levels, weed and pest control, and commercial liability for loss by fire.
Both MAF Policy and Landcare Research entered the study as an
opportunity to research impacts of land-use change at a regional
level, and to develop a model within which other regions could
undertake evaluation of future scenarios relating to land-use
change.
As such, this study considers the current economic base of the
WDC region and the outlook held by its various business sectors.
It then evaluates a mid-line scenario of land-use change to
forestry over a 30 year period and estimates changes in
employment opportunity, household incomes, servicing sector
demand, rural populations and schooling. The study identifies
future opportunities and comments on the requirements and skills
needed for the local WDC community to take up and benefit from
these opportunities. It is a study that can be updated at
different times in the future on the basis of known changes to
date.
The study focuses on two key impacts of land-use change -
employment, and household income. It also addresses demographic,
infrastructural and environmental impacts at a generic level and
identifies key social issues that require further consideration.
This report is a resource document that provides some background
data and identifies key indicators of change for the future use
of the Council and community groups.
A simple model has been prepared, based on a District input
output model developed for this study. It generates key direct
impacts in the agriculture, meat processing and forestry sectors
and indirect impacts on related sectors for any scenario.
The study was not prepared to advocate any particular land use
except inasmuch as whatever the land use, it should be
sustainable. Neither was it prepared to recommend District Scheme
planning controls. It is a document which examines predicted
changes over time to the socio-economic climate in the region,
and how these changes may be turned from perceived threats into
individual and regional opportunities.
Contact for Enquiries
Rural Affairs Coordinator
Sector Performance Policy
MAF Policy
Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry
PO Box 2526
Wellington
NEW ZEALAND
Phone: +64 4 894 0675
Fax: +64 4 4 894 0745
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