Executive Summary
_______________________________________________________________________
1.0 Study Objective
The Wairoa District has become an increasingly attractive area for
investment forestry. By early 1994, sections of the community were expressing strong
concern that this would have a detrimental effect on the people of the District. Forestry
appeared to be displacing traditional pastoral farming, which provided both the social
infrastructure in rural areas and employment in processing and support services in the
urban areas.
This study focuses on two key impacts of land-use change from
hill-country pastoral farming to plantation forestry in the Wairoa District Council (WDC)
area - employment and household income. It also addresses demographic, infrastructural,
and environmental impacts at a generic level and identifies key social issues that require
further consideration. This summary and the full report are resource documents that
provide background data and analysis of change for the future use of the Council and
community groups.
This executive summary follows the same order of chapter headings as the
main report.
2.0 Wairoa District - Population and Employment
- Total population in 1991 numbered 10 266, a decline of 8.3% from 1981.
- A total of 3326 people (32.4%) were in paid work (self-employed and wage
or salary earners) in 1991. This was a decrease of 13.5% from 1981.
- From 1986, unemployment rose consistently to a high of 1350 in December
1992. This was followed by a steady decline to 830 currently (NZ Employment Service, April
1995).
- Industries are ranked in order of importance according to the size of
their workforce:
Industry groupings 1991 workforce Agriculture, forestry, and fishing Community, social, and personal services
Manufacturing
Wholesale, retail, restaurants, and hotels
Building and construction
921
867
627
492
192
Total
3099
These industries employed 89% of the paid workforce as at 1991. These employees were engaged in the following businesses.
Business sector NZSIC Codes Statistics New Zealand (1992) Number % Primary sector (excl. farms) 1 (excl 111), 2 36 9 Manufacturing 3 (excl. AFFCO)
16 4 Commercial services Trades 5, 95 57 14 Retail 62 72 18 Hospitality 63,94 34 9 Business 8 27 7 Other 4, 61, 7 63 16 Social / community services 93 63 16 Public administration 91
31 8 TOTAL 399 100
- In 1991, only 36 workers are recorded as being involved with the Forestry and Logging
industry (a component of the grouped industry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing above).
3.0 Land Use and Physiography
The Wairoa District Council area is predominantly steep to very steep
hill country, much of which is susceptible to erosion damage. Approximately 60% of the
total land area is in use, and 47% is in grass.
Summary land-in-use statistics (Statistics New Zealand, for the year
ended 1993)
| Total land area (ha) | 412 750 | 100% |
| Conservation estate (ha) | 152 212 | 37% |
| Number of holdings | 443 | |
| Total area (land holdings) (ha) | 260 536 | 63% |
| Grassed area (ha) | 194 149 | 47% |
| Plantations (ha) | 33 419 | 8% |
| Other land (ha) | 32 968 | 8% |
The generally steep river valley systems that have developed in the District on
relatively recent sedimentary rocks indicate that erosion is a naturally occurring process
and has been significantly active over recent geological time. The removal of the original
forest cover and replacement by short grasses and grazing animals has accelerated that
rate of erosion. This has been recorded by farmers and scientists alike since the late
nineteenth century.
4.0 Pastoral Farming
Provisional 1993 data from Statistics New Zealand indicate that the
average holding size was 588 ha and the average grassed area per holding was 438 ha. For
the estimated 300 pastoral farms in 1993, the average grassed area per farm is calculated
as 647 hectares.
The total livestock units (LSUs) changed over the period 1981-93 as
follows:
Year |
Total LSUs | LSUs per ha in grass |
1981 1986 1991 1992 1993 |
1 799 994 1 816 449 1 552 375 1 505 741 1 502 701 |
9.12 9.36 7.81 7.86 7.74 |
Livestock numbers increased until the mid 1980s encouraged by Government-funded land
development schemes, livestock product pricing policies (SMPs) and other subsidised
assistance provided to the agricultural sector.
The main reasons for the decline in stock number after 1986 included falling fertility
due to severe cutbacks of fertiliser on marginal land, low product prices, high interest
rates, changes to livestock taxation, Cyclone Bola damage, the 1989 drought, and, more
recently, changes in land use from pastoral to forestry enterprises. The decrease in
livestock numbers between 1986 and 1993 amounted to 17.3% in total.
Sheep and beef cattle comprised 96.6% of total livestock units at 30 June 1993. In
total, sheep LSUs have decreased by 27.2% and cattle LSUs by only 3.0% in the period 1986
to 1993.
Information obtained from a 1994 survey of Wairoa pastoral farmers:
- Farms under 800 ha are substantially owner-operated, with contract assistance for intensive tasks requiring more than one labour unit, e.g., shearing.
- Farmers indicated strong support for locally based workers, although a number of the larger properties use shearing crews from outside the District.
- Eighty-two percent of surveyed farms are family-owned and operated. A further 11% are privately owned and employ a manager. The latter tend to be the larger farms managed on behalf of absentee owners and, when added to the Trust or Incorporation-owned properties, these make up by area and stock numbers a substantial proportion of the District.
- An analysis of farm manager age identifies a considerable proportion of managers in the over 50 years categories, particularly in the smaller farm classes. This suggests that there will continue to be a steady number of properties coming to market as owner operators retire.
- On average, 82% of the land classed as grassed area in the Agriculture Statistics is in managed pasture, with an additional 5% in grazed scrub. The remaining area is in other uses. Woodlots make up a very small proportion of land area at 2% or less across all farm classes.
- Sixty-five percent of farms in the survey received off-farm income in the 1993/94 year. At current gross margin levels a farm of 4000 stock units (400 ha to 500 ha) is considered to be a viable one-family unit in the Wairoa District (H. Collier, pers. comm.).
- In expenditure terms, survey results confirm that the farming sector strongly supports local businesses even though some major inputs - e.g., fertiliser, fuel, and vehicles - are effectively purchased externally, the local suppliers being agents of importers or manufacturers.
5.0 Forestry
This study estimates the Wairoa District plantation forest resource at
approximately 35 000 ha at 30 June 1994 with 57% less than 16 years old. This estimate was
based on the 1993 Agriculture Statistics and a survey of large forest growers. Production
forestry is dominated by the corporate growers, investment partnerships, and companies,
and by a small number of large private growers.
Wairoa Plantation Resource Identified by Survey
| Forest growers | Estimated plantation area at 31 March 1994 (ha) |
| Corporate forest growers Investor partnerships and companies Other growers |
23 400 4 500 1 700 |
|
29 600 |
Production forests currently contribute at least 120 full-time equivalents of
employment, but only 25% to 30% of these are captured within the District, according to a
survey of major forest growers.
Direct expenditure on the major forests in the Wairoa District exceeded $6.3 million in
the 1993/94 financial year. Just over 25% of this was spent in the District. While there
are some costs which will always occur outside the District, approximately $1.2 million of
expenditure ($0.86 million in establishment, $0.32 in tending) spent externally could have
gone to Wairoa-based contractors. An additional $2.3 million is spent outside the District
on logging and loading.
The following publicly available information has allowed us to make some tentative
forecasts:
- Juken Nissho Ltd have stated an intention to expand their East Coast resource by 30 000 ha over the next 30 years. A substantial proportion of the Company's new planting could reasonably be in the Wairoa District.
- Private investment partnerships and companies have been planting 2000 to 3500 ha per annum over the past two years, and have some area already available for planting in 1995. Steady demand is forecast, although at a lower level from present.
- CHH Forests have recently purchased additional land for new establishment.
As a result of these factors we have used the following schedule of new planting in this analysis.
| Year | Likely (ha) | Upper estimate (Ha) |
| 1994 (estimated actual) | 5200 | 5200 |
| 1995 (forecast) | 3500 | 4500 |
| 1996 | 2000 | 3000 |
| 1997-1999 | 2000 | 2000 |
| 2000-2024 | 1600 | 2000 |
6.0 Recent Land Use Changes in the Wairoa District
6.1 Farm sales - 1989 to 1994 (Valuation NZ data)
Sixty-eight properties have been sold during the period 1989 to 1994,
with a high of 16 in 1990. On average 8650 ha/annum of farm land has changed hands. The
most marked change has been in the purchasers of farm properties, as summarised in the
following table.
| Year | Number of properties purchased, and use for which they were destined | |||
| Nationally | Wairoa | Farming | Forestry | |
| 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 |
121 153 98 135 137 97 |
13 16 6 10 12 11 |
13 16 6 8 6 3 |
0 0 0 2 6 8 |
| Total | 741 | 68 | 52 | 16 |
The total area of land sold to forestry since 1992 is 12 130 ha. Of this, 242 ha have
been subdivided and resold as lifestyle holdings or intensive farm units with farm
buildings.From these estimates, a total of 86 150 stock units has been displaced to date
from the 12 130 ha purchased by forestry interests.
Analysis of sales over the past five years suggests that purchases by forestry
interests have generally been of more intensively managed properties than farmer
purchases. Properties that have been sold, however, have tended to be less intensively
managed than the District average.
6.2 Pastoral property price trends - 1989 to 1994
Prices paid for pastoral farms in the Wairoa District have been driven
up significantly by forestry buyers in the period 1992 to 1994. Data from 1989 to 1992
suggest that sale prices were relatively constant at 70-75% of the national average for
hill-country pastoral farms. In 1992, however, forestry buyers entered the District,
paying prices consistent with the national average. Since then prices have increased
dramatically, and currently are approximately 119% of national average.
Pastoral farm sale prices ($/LSU) - 1989 to 1994
| Year | Sale price ($/LSU) | |||
| Nationally | Wairoa | Farming | Forestry | |
| 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 |
98 103 98 122 146 164 |
71 76 72 101 130 195 |
71 76 72 83 114 164 |
0 0 0 121 145 206 |
7.0 Trends in Farming and Business in Wairoa
Statistical data describing the structure, constraints, intentions, and
opinions of the Wairoa business and farming sectors are derived from mail surveys
conducted by the authors in September 1994. Response rates were 36.5% for the business
surveys (97 of 265) and 33.2% for the farmer surveys (95 of 286).
7.11 Employment and output expectations of survey respondents
Analysis of business survey respondents recorded no significant change
in total employment or the volume of business across most industries over the past five
years, although levels have fluctuated. The last 18 months has seen an upward trend in
demand for products and services.
Businesses forecast continuing improvement in the volume of demand,
particularly in the primary, manufacturing, construction, hospitality, and business
service classes, but do not expect any major movements in employment in the coming five
years. However, the retail trade remains cautious, with a number of businesses indicating
that closure was possible, and only a small number forecasting increased trade.
The farming sector has seen an improvement in employment over the past
five years. This is reflected most strongly on the 400 ha to 1500 ha properties as both
full-time and casual employment. Increases have averaged 0.2 to 0.4 full time equivalents
(FTEs) per property.
Forestry-related employment has increased rapidly since 1993 and, on the
basis of trees already in the ground, offers substantial new opportunities in the next 15
years. The following estimates of direct employment were derived by modelling the existing
forest resource and its labour demands to the end of the current rotation, and assuming no
new planting.
Forecast contract employment in Wairoa District
(1995-2024)
| Work type | Work available (FTEs) | ||||||
| 1994 | 1995/99 | 2000/04 | 2009/10 | 2010/14 | 2015/19 | 2020/24 | |
| TENDING | 30 | 47 | 45 | 24 | 39 | 50 | 45 |
| Logging/loading Transport Roading HARVESTING |
28 12 4 44 |
33 12 4 49 |
71 16 3 90 |
130 35 6 171 |
169 63 10 242 |
161 83 12 256 |
131 77 10 218 |
| Other | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| TOTAL | 76 | 98 | 137 | 197 | 283 | 308 | 265 |
7.2 Changes in business and farming strategies
Almost 60% of businesses responded that they had altered their business strategy in the
past five years. The three most common strategies were to alter product or service range,
to change operating hours, and/or to restructure debt. This adjustment is forecast to
continue into the next five years, with 11% of businesses considering capital investment
in building, and 32% indicating that further investment in equipment was likely.
Investment in farming is also increasing. In the past five years substantial additional
investment has been made across all farm classes in increasing fertiliser applications,
increasing repair and maintenance expenditure, and replacing equipment, e.g., farm bikes.
Fifty percent of farmers have increased fertiliser applications, 40% have increased
maintenance expenditure, and 65% have increased expenditure on equipment. Less than 11%
have reduced these expenses.
7.3 Critical factors impacting on Wairoa businesses
Respondents to the business and farming surveys ranked critical factors impacting on
their commercial activities as follows.
| Businesses | Farmers | |
| Unemployment | Product prices | |
| Farm incomes | Droughts | |
| Government policy | Input and interest costs | |
| Climatic events | Government policy | |
| AFFCO employment | Storm events | |
| Forestry development | Forestry development |
Farmers were asked about changes in community structure over the past five years, and
their significance. A high proportion (over 85%) indicated that no changes had
significantly affected them. Where impacts were reported these included declining rural
school rolls (12%), diminishing rural school bus services (10%), reduction in rural retail
outlets (stores, hotels, post offices), changes in the frequency and quality of freight
services, and a decline in agricultural services.
7.4 Business confidence
In general terms, across both the farming and business sectors, business health is
judged to be mediocre to good and there is a trend towards gradual improvement. Farmers
are consistently more positive than business people, both in their assessment of business
health overall and in their confidence in the future prosperity of their businesses.
Manufacturing, construction, and hospitality/tourism are the most positive of the
industry classes.
7.5 Impacts of afforestation on local businesses
Recent afforestation of 12 130 ha is only approximately 6% of the area in pastoral use
in the District. However, 30% of businesses perceived an impact from the forestry
expansion on their business over the past five years. Industries indicating the strongest
responses were the primary sector, wholesale trade (e.g., stock and station agents),
utility suppliers, and retailers.
Most, but not all, impacts reported were negative. In the service classes they related
to decline in farm spending, rural population, and the number of farm clients; and in
manufacturing, to the decline in livestock numbers. Five percent of respondents recognised
an increase in business from forestry-based expenditure.
An increased proportion of businesses expected some impact in the future, with the
major concerns again reduction in farm spending, the potential threat to AFFCO, and the
export of profit and capital expenditure.
7.6 Impacts of forest development on the farming community
To date, 40% of farmers identified an impact. Almost half of these referred to the
increase in land values. Some identified this as positive in terms of improved equity and
the opportunity to sell some land and reduce debt. Others described the resulting increase
in rates as a negative, or forecast a long-term decline in value as forestry became a
dominant land use. The other area of impact which received a reasonable amount of support
was the restriction on certain activities, e.g., fire and the liability risk that forestry
as a neighbour generates.
Seventy-three percent of farmers expected to be affected by forest development in the
future. Three concerns received consistent support across all farm classes: (a) a
potential decline in rural services, (b) an increase in road damage and maintenance costs,
and (c) a breaking down of the rural community structure and increasing isolation.
7.7 Community and environmental issues
In order to put into context the concern over changes in land use, survey respondents
were asked to list the three most important community and environmental issues from their
perspective. There was strong agreement across both sectors that the key community issues
were (a) unemployment, (b) crime, (c) the future of health services, (d) a lack of
motivation/confidence, and (e) the need for well targeted, effective training and
education opportunities. These five issues received greater than 10% support from both
sectors, with unemployment receiving over 50% support from both sectors.
People's perceptions and concerns on environmental issues were more varied. Erosion and
forestry development both received strong support from both sectors. Effluent disposal,
drainage, and water quality also received more general support.
8.0 Impacts of Land Use Change on Farming and Meat Processing
To analyse the regional effects of afforestation on pastoral land, a base scenario of
land-use change over 30 years has been developed.
| Planting year | Hectares |
| 1995 | 3500 |
| 1996 | 2500 |
| 1997-99 | 2000 p.a. |
| 2000-2024 | 1600 p.a. |
| Total planted area | 52 000 ha (over 30 years) |
| Total reduction in LSUs | 400 400 LSUs (over 30 years) |
| Total salvage value of livestock | $24.5 million |
- The agriculture-related employment loss increases in total from 9 FTEs in 1995 to 237
FTEs at the end of the 30-year period of land-use change. Approximately 57% of the
employment loss is associated with on-farm labour (including owners).
- The loss in gross household income related to the agricultural sector increases from
$0.66 million in 1995 to $9.79 million p.a. after 30 years of land-use change. These
agriculture-related losses increase from 0.9% to 13.6% of the current district total over
the 30-year period.
The contribution to the loss of gross household income from the agricultural sector is
summarised as:
| On farm | 68.7% |
| Farming indirect | 22.9% |
| Meat processing direct and indirect | 8.4% |
The reduction in agriculture-related employment and income in the servicing sector has been included as the indirect components of the analysis. The reduction in demand is estimated as follows.
% Reduction of inputs and services
| Year | (farm-related) | |
| 2004 | (after 10 years) | - 9.0 |
| 2014 | (after 20 years) | -16.2 |
| 2024 | (after 30 years) | -23.4 |
Businesses likely to be most affected by the land-use change are:
- Veterinary practices and farm consultants
- Fertiliser companies
- Agricultural contractors
- Stock and station agencies
- Transport operators
The impact on the meat processing industry is small under the assumptions made and the
current rate of annual kill. The analysis calculates a loss of only 29 FTEs after the
30-year land-use change period, and is less than 8% of the current work-force (estimated
at about 400 FTEs).
9.0 Impacts of Land Use Change on Forestry and Wood Processing
The significant factors areas follows.
- The silvicultural labour requirements build up to a peak in year 2002 and
then fall away to a constant requirement of 79 FTEs by year 2009.
- From the commencement of harvest, employment requirements increase
dramatically, with or without wood processing. After the early higher rate of planting is
harvested, employment requirements for the base scenario level out at approximately 1160
FTEs inclusive of all direct and indirect employment and replanting of harvested areas.
This requirement is marginally greater than 30% of the total current workforce in the
District.
- Gross household income from forestry and wood processing increases from
about $2.5 million per annum during the first 28 years, to in excess of $40 million per
annum after harvest commences. This is equivalent to an increase of more than 55% on the
current level of district household income. This is exclusive of the actual value of the
wood itself .
- Without wood processing located in the WDC area labour requirements and
gross household income related to forestry would be reduced by approximately 50%.
The net impacts on employment and gross household income for the
land-use change under base scenario assumptions are presented in Table 3. The net change
with local wood processing facilities is summarised as follows.
- The gross household income stays relatively static over the first 10
years, and thereafter decreases evenly to a maximum of -$6.75 million p.a. (-9.4% of the
current district income) in the year 2022.
- Once harvesting at a static rate of 1600 hectares p.a. is reached in the
year 2028, the net increase in district gross household income would be approximately $32
million per annum (+44% of current district income). (This assumes local processing
facilities.) This scenario would generate over 900 additional FTEs of employment.
- Without wood processing facilities, the net change to district gross
household income at year 2028 is approximately $13 million per annum (+18%). The increase
in employment would be limited to about 350 additional FTEs harvesting, log transport and
replanting.
Development of wood processing facilities may occur before the year
2023, on the basis of available wood volumes from existing forests (at 1995) and in the
expectation of additional volumes from the year 2023 onwards. This would offset farm
employment and income losses at an earlier time.
10.0 Selected Social Issues and Rural Impacts
10.1 Rural depopulation
On-farm employment losses will have the greatest impact on rural
districts and communities. Where land-use change is concentrated on particular districts,
rural schools may no longer be viable through falling rolls, and other district services
such as school buses, rural mail deliveries, and commercial transport may also become
non-viable.
Offsetting this effect will be the trend for some of the farm workers
displaced by land-use change to move into forestry employment and to continue to reside in
the locality. At the same time, lifestyle farmers and/or forest workers may move into the
locality of the new forest development.
Some net rural depopulation is likely in areas undergoing land-use
change to forestry. The estimates of likely rural depopulation numbers are made at several
levels of net outward migration.
Degree of net migration out (%) |
Total persons lost at year 2024 |
No. of persons lost per 1000 hectares |
25 |
116 |
2.22 |
50 |
230 |
4.44 |
75 |
346 |
6.66 |
100 |
462 |
8.88 |
The age structure of the District's population is assumed constant in
these calculations. In reality there may be significant changes in structure because new
residents, who use land differently from those who leave, may well be in different age
classes.
10.2 School rolls
The impact on rural primary school rolls is broadly estimated using the 1991 census data. This estimate assumes rural depopulation based on the 50% outward migration level, and is summarised below.
| Child age across the District at 2024 | Total decline in school rolls |
| 5 to 11 years | 36 |
| 12 and 13 years | 10 |
| 14 years | 5 |
| Total | 51 |
The effect on rural school rolls under this assumption will not be great if the
land-use change is spread evenly over the area. However, this is unlikely, and some
schools may close.
11.0 Impact of Land Use Change on District Roads
The District roading infrastructure, excluding State Highways, is
approximately 820 km, of which 82% is unsealed. Current expenditure is budgeted at $4.5
million per annum offset by a 60% Transit New Zealand subsidy.
Most of the non-arterial rural roads have a carriageway of five metres
or less which is generally too narrow for regular use by heavy commercial vehicles such as
logging trucks.
The increased use of a particular road by heavy commercial vehicles, particularly at high intensities as with logging trucks, substantially increases wear (Clough & Meister 1987). This may result in road failure where roads are not adequately constructed for heavy traffic or have exceeded their design life.
In addition to potential road deterioration, there are important social
issues. These include the rapid increase in the volume of heavy traffic on rural feeder
roads used predominantly by farm families, increases in noise and dust levels, and the
perception of reduced road safety as a result of increased heavy traffic use.
In the past, forest companies have expressed concern at attempts by
local authorities to impose additional revenue collection measures such as differential
rating or special grants, rates or bonds on forest owners. Current ratepayers are also
concerned at the additional costs of road maintenance and improvement and the subsequent
increase in rates that log transport is likely to impose. Local Bodies are also concerned
at the difficulty under existing funding mechanisms in spreading road improvements over a
number of years before harvesting commences.
It is expected that a number of rural feeder roads will require
significant upgrading for harvest use over the next 10 years. These can be planned for
with adequate consultation between the WDC and forest companies.
The use of rail as an alternative log cartage system is only likely to
be viable once large harvest volumes travelling a considerable distance are available.
12.0 Environmental Impact of Land Use
12.1 Soil loss
The mass movement processes that are most common in the Wairoa District
are shallow slip and earthflow erosion (Page 1988). There is considerable evidence for
frequent shallow slips under natural conditions (Clough & Hicks 1992). Slipping is
induced by short intense rainstorms or prolonged wet weather. The magnitude of slipping in
any event is complex. Slipping under pasture occurs more intensely than under forest for
storm events of the same magnitude. As a result, average levels of slipping under pasture
are between two and ten times greater than under indigenous forest or scrub (Clough &
Hicks 1992).
Afforestation reduces the magnitude of mass movement significantly,
forests over eight years of age providing results very similar to indigenous forest. There
are, however, periods of susceptibility to erosion in a plantation rotation. These occur
between planting and canopy closure at six to eight years (Phillips et al. 1990).
In subsequent rotations this period of risk is reduced over the first two to three years
as the roots of harvested trees provide residual, but declining, cohesiveness (Watson
1990).
Slipping also has a significant impact on pasture productivity in the
short term, and on potential productivity in the long term. The study by Douglas et al.
(1986) of pasture production in the Wairoa District indicates that on siltstone hill
country, maximum recovered productivity under normal management takes at least 15 years
and that this is likely to be at least 20% below original levels. This is largely a
potential loss, and can be masked by additional management inputs, e.g., fertiliser,
improved grasses, subdivision. Land slipping in the District can also have a large
immediate financial impact in terms of replacing fences, reinstating tracks and oversowing
damaged hillsides.
Disaster recovery grants on the East Coast after Cyclone Bola averaged
$83,000 for large farms (>800 ha) and $30,000 for small farms (150 ha to 800 ha).
Channelised mass movement (debris avalanches and flows) occur in the very steep
mountainous areas under intense rainfall and contribute significantly to river
sedimentation (O'Loughlin & Pearce 1982, Grant 1982).
12.2 Soil Degradation
Rates of nutrient loss are primarily determined by (a) rate of soil loss
by erosion, (b) loss through product removal (animals, logs) and (c) leaching and
volatilisation (especially nitrates). Relative loss rate data are sparse and rarely
comparative. The impact of trees on nutrient availability varies and is complex. Studies
suggest that trees in low-nutrient soils reduce nutrient availability and those in
high-nutrient soils increase it (Smith 1994). The outcome for any site appears to depend
on the plantation's effect on the equilibrium between inputs and outputs of organic
matter. Fast growth rates and removal of biomass at harvesting can be expected to generate
deficiencies in nutrients in marginal supply or alter nutrient balances, which in turn
affect tree nutrition.
Nutrient depletion in agricultural systems is primarily caused by
leaching, animal transfer and soil loss due to erosion (Hedley et al. 1990).
Maintenance applications of key elements are essential components for clover-based pasture
systems, to maintain clover nitrogen fixation rates and growth of productive pasture
species.
Compaction is likely to be a greater problem in plantation forestry,
with the use of heavy machinery in harvesting and roading, than in agriculture, although
compaction damage by cattle pugging
in wet conditions is quite common. Tree growth is adversely affected on skidder-logged
sites and on skid sites where logs are aggregated (Dyck & Cole 1990). Natural
alleviation of compaction is slow (Gameda et al. 1994) and compacted soils can
reduce soil biological activity, restrict plant root extension, reduce water infiltration
and increase surface runoff.
There is evidence of acidification in both pasture and plantation
forestry systems. Levels of acidification under pine plantations are less clear, although
some data indicates reduced pH levels under plantations when compared with neighbouring
pasture sites (Hawke & O'Connor 1992). The long-term impact is yet to be assessed.
There is a common concern among pastoral farmers that land managed for production forestry
will not easily be able to be returned to pasture production because of acidification.
Forest companies' experience with oversowing after harvesting (as a weed control measure)
would suggest that this fear is not well founded.
There is little comparative data concerning the relative biological
activity in pastoral and forestry soils. Vegetative diversity encourages soil biotic
diversity. Fertiliser applications, acidification and/or high-density monocultural
plantations may reduce diversity and activity. Mycorrhizal associations in plantation
forests benefit soil health, particularly on poorer soils (Dyck et al. 1985).
12.3 Water quality
Water quality in Wairoa rivers is closely related to soil movement
(erosion, earthworks) and nutrient movement. All rivers show limitations due to turbidity
(sedimentation) (Hooper 1994). In the Waiau river system this is significantly contributed
to by natural erosion in the Urewera National Park. The Wairoa and the lowland rivers
(Nuhaka, Waihua and Waikare) are further limited by conductivity, ionic concentration and
hardness, which at least partially are attributed to existing land use. There is
particular concern over the impacts of wastewater discharge from effluent and sewerage
treatment systems in the lower Wairoa. A decrease in oxygen concentrations and an increase
in suspended solids, bacterial concentrations, ammonia nitrogen and biochemical oxygen
demand have resulted in a conclusion by the Hawke's Bay Regional Council that there are potential health
risks in participating in contact water sports in the lower Wairoa River and estuary
(Sander 1994).
At a national level Regional Council officials rank agriculture as the
biggest source of adverse effects on water quality, followed by human sewage disposal (MAF
1992). Forestry was cited as significant but less serious than other sources of water
quality problems.
Production forestry involves a number of activities - earthworks, site
preparation, establishment, tending, fertiliser use and harvesting - which may influence
water quality. Of these activities, roading, site establishment, fertiliser application
and skid sites and tracks at harvesting affect water quality most (Priest & Rennes
1979).
Plantation forestry can be expected to improve the chemical quality of
water relative to pastoral land. However, burning of harvested sites for land preparation
and direct application of fertiliser to watercourses can increase conductivity, total
nitrogen and total phosphate levels (Dyck et al. 1981).
Of major agricultural impacts on water quality, sedimentation and
nutrient loading of surface water bodies are rated the most serious, with changes to
physical characteristics and faecal contamination of surface waters ranked as slightly
less serious impacts, followed closely by nitrate contamination of groundwater (MAF 1992).
Lakes in predominantly pasture-dominated catchments are often nutrient-enriched, many
showing adverse signs of eutrophication (depleted oxygen levels, poor water clarity,
scums, blooms of phytoplankton). Work by Howard-Williams et al. (1983) on the
Tiniroto and Putere lakes confirm high nitrate and phosphate levels and frequent incidence
of algal blooms associated with nutrient enrichment.
12.4 Water yield
The volume of stream flow directly affects both water quality and the
availability of water for use. A given amount of contamination, whether it be nutrients,
pesticides, sediment or faecal coliforms, will have a greater impact on water quality when
there is reduced flow.
Conversion of whole catchments of pastureland to plantation forestry can
reduce total annual water yields by up to 50% once the canopy closes (Fahey & Rowe
1992). The impact on low flows is unclear, but peak discharges from small storms may be
reduced by up to 80%. The impact on peak flows from large storm events is much lower.
These effects may be beneficial as a means of flood protection but may also have serious
consequences where downstream users are dependent on sustained flows for irrigation,
hydro-electric power, municipal supplies, etc.
Fahey & Rowe (1992) report declines of up to 50% in low flow levels
from small catchment studies in the South Island. In contrast, Black (1993) analysed low
flow data, comparing exotic forested catchments with a pastoral catchment near Patunamu
Forest, and showed that afforestation improves infiltration, storage and average low flow
levels if the rainfall is greater than the transpiration requirements. Black concluded
that general low water yield in the District occurs regardless of vegetation cover, with a
tendency for slightly higher flows in forested areas, and that a change from pastoral to
forestry land use would not cause a reduction of minimum flow. He acknowledged, however,
that the effects on flow distribution and duration of low flow had not been addressed and
required further study. These different interpretations of data have yet to be resolved.
12.5 Biodiversity - vegetation and habitat degradation
Modifications in indigenous vegetation to support productive use have
important environmental impacts on (a) water yield and quality, and therefore on aquatic
flora and fauna, (b) diversity of plant species, reducing ecological resilience and
habitat for animals, and (c) weed introduction and spread. Removal of riparian vegetation,
particularly in pastoral systems but also in plantation forestry, results in significant
impacts. Riparian zones have a number of functions, but generally they act as filters for
sediment- and nutrient-laden water, and provide shade and food for the aquatic communities
living in the streams. Riparian zones can also act as corridors for wildlife, providing
access to water and routes for migration.
Clearance of native vegetation for planting exotic species can lead to a
loss of biodiversity and of habitats for indigenous flora and fauna. The New Zealand
Forest Accord, signed in 1991 between conservation interests and major forest companies,
made a commitment that native forest, including areas of regeneration, would not be
cleared for plantation planting. The Forests Act 1993 limits private owners= ability to clear native
forest, but scrub clearance continues in both farm and forest development.
Plantation forestry can harbour exotic invasive weeds which may
constitute threats to neighbouring landowners. Weed infestation in plantations has led to
intensive vegetation management practices, with heavy emphasis on herbicide use,
particularly in the establishment phase. With the cost of weed control increasing and
growing pressure against herbicide use, alternative techniques such as oversowing are now
being introduced, with economic and environmental benefits.
12.6 Animal pests
Plantation forestry and extensively managed pasture and scrub can all
harbour animal pests such as goats and possums. The crucial issue appears to be investment
in pest control by land managers. Both sectors and regional authorities invest significant
amounts in pest control. Coordination by the Regional Councils provides an opportunity for
a fair and equitable pest control programme to be established that benefits all
landowners.
Pest control methods continue to be an area of considerable debate, and
the use of sodiummonofluoroacetate (1080) is of particular concern. Drench resistance is
also an issue, particularly where uncontrolled goats can act as vectors for parasites, as
is the risk of cross infection of tuberculosis from possums to cattle.
12.7 Climate change
Trees and tree crops are vulnerable to climate change, since the time
scale for the projected increase in temperature is short in relation to their lifespan
(Whitehead et al. 1993). Plantation forests are being promoted as an effective
means of reducing net greenhouse gas emissions. Scientists studying the Greenhouse Effect
believe that every hectare of pasture converted to a typical stand of trees, under a
sustainable regime, will store at least 100 tonnes of carbon (Maclaren et al.
1993). The benefits of plantation forestry are largely derived by establishing forests on
land currently not in forest cover, and are only long term if the net wood products pool
is increasing (Maclaren & Wakelin 1991).
One of the concerns raised by farmers is the potential for local changes
in climate as a result of tree planting. While there is evidence to support the impact of
extremely large contiguous areas of forest on climate patterns (e.g., the Amazon basin)
there is no firm evidence to support changes in local weather patterns through regional
afforestation or forest removal.
12.8 Widespread loss as a result of introduced pests
There is widespread concern that monocultural forest plantations are
more vulnerable to pest and disease attack than more diverse ecosystems, especially when
they are under nutrient stress or derived from limited genetic material (Rosoman 1994).
There is also debate as to whether the long-term health of the radiata
pine resource in New Zealand has declined. Opposing arguments state that the genetic base
within the species has been intentionally maintained at a broad level and that this
confers diversity and resilience. Threats from new pests and diseases are real, and are
the focus of an expanding health surveillance programme of forests and at ports of entry
(Handiside 1994).
12.9 Aesthetics and landscape considerations
Aesthetics is a difficult subject to address quantitatively. Large areas
of even-age plantations of single species provide a homogeneous landscape substantially
different from that of pastoral farming. This is often criticised as being monotonous and
visually unappealing. Pastoral farming is an extremely familiar landscape to most New
Zealanders, and is promoted as typical in much of our international publicity. Landscape
architects argue that the challenge in any land use is to establish patterns that are
appropriate in form and scale to the character of both the underlying landform and the
surrounding landscape.
12.10 Health
Health issues in agriculture suggest that the impact on public health of
product quality is of greater importance than plant production (Clough & Hicks 1992).
There is potential, however, for faecal contamination to enter waterways or aquifers from
a variety of agricultural sources. This can be a vector for disease, potentially causing
illness if the water is used for contact recreation, for drinking by humans or livestock,
or for food processing. Water treatment costs may be increased and coastal waters
contaminated, rendering shellfish unfit to eat.
The most serious health issues in forestry, however, relate to worker
safety and the processing of wood products. Worker safety is also an issue in agriculture.
The use of toxic chemicals (herbicides, pesticides) and dangerous or heavy equipment
(chainsaws, logging machinery, tractors) puts workers at risk.
Some contributors to this report have suggested pollen as a potential
respiratory health issue. No data on pollen from plantation softwoods as a potential
health risk have been found.
12.11 Fire
After harvesting forests, large-scale burning used to be carried out
routinely to reduce the amount of slash and facilitate planting. It is now less widely
used because research has indicated that the long-term productivity and sustainability of
forests is aided by retaining slash for nutrient recycling. Burning has negative impacts
on water quality, nutrient loss and sediment yields because it promotes surface runoff
(Dyck et al. 1981).
Plantation forestry is at greater risk of commercial loss from fire than
is pastoral land. As a result, regulatory control of some activities on land adjoining
forests is common. The commercial risk is imposed as a liability on neighbouring land
users, and is of widespread concern to farmers. Recreational use of forests is a potential
benefit to the District but can create a major fire hazard, especially where trees are
close to residential developments.
13.0 Discussion
13.1 Opportunities
The net benefits to Wairoa District of the employment and income
predictions made in this study are fundamentally dependent on the ability of people living
in the WDC area to capture them. Currently, much of the forestry-related employment (up to
75%) is being carried out by contracted workers from outside the District. Effective
training programmes for both prospective workers and contractors may be necessary for some
of these jobs to be captured by local residents. These programmes could focus initially on
silviculture, which provides a relatively simple entry into the business of contracting
and general forestry skills. Marae or community-based training initiatives may be
appropriate.
A WDC policy statement on forestry development might also be appropriate
to indicate the Council's attitude toward Wairoa becoming a significant forestry service
centre. Such a strategy could address the issues of roading as well as industrial
development opportunities. A consistent and clear approach would provide certainty for
landowners.
13.2 Social costs and community response
A simple assessment of the potential net employment benefits of forestry
development disguises the very real costs that are also incurred. In the case of land-use
change these are predominantly carried by the present farming community. There are
economic costs of rates increases, the restriction of farm activities and increased
liability risk. There are also substantial social costs in changes to existing community
structures, perceived isolation, threats to schools and school bus routes, and other
services such as commercial transport and rural mail.
Council-supported community debate around the issues raised in this
report would be valuable. The development of community initiatives to address changes in
particular localities could also be supported. Issues addressed could include school bus
services, sponsorship of local community activities and rationalisation of farm services
within an area.
The establishment of a Council-supported rural issues committee that
includes representatives from Council, forestry companies and local communities might be a
suitable forum for resolving common issues such as fire control and prevention procedures,
weed and pest control, roading and landscape planning.
13.3 Knowledge gaps
- Identification of particular road segments expected to be used for
harvesting in a five-year rolling roading strategy.
- Monitoring and continued research into the implementation of land-use
changes: realisation of potential benefits and also of social costs.
- Support for the continuation of existing research into long-term
environmental quality issues associated with land-use change.
Contact for Enquiries
Rural Affairs Coordinator
Sector Performance Policy
MAF Policy
Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry
PO Box 2526
Wellington
NEW ZEALAND
Phone: +64 4 894 0675
Fax: +64 4 4 894 0745
Contact this person
