10.0 SELECTED SOCIAL ISSUES AND RURAL IMPACTS
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Key points
- Research in this field has been sporadic and often study specific. No longitudinal studies nor information that could be directly applied to the Wairoa situation was found.
- Indicators of social wellbeing and community structure were difficult to find. The size of school rolls and total rural population were used as two measures of community structure. A simple linear analysis of population change using 1991 census data and projected changes in land-use was employed to estimate potential changes in school rolls and population.
- The likely impact of land-use change on rural population levels and rural school rolls is estimated to be small. This contrasts with fears commonly expressed by local communities.
10.1 Literature review
Two recent publications providing good summaries of the impact of land-use change from pastoral to forestry and other uses are available from either MAF Policy or Landcare Research. These publications are: -
- "Forestry and Community: A Scoping Study of the Impact of Exotic Forestry on Rural New Zealand Communities since 1980, Part (1) Literature Review", University of Otago Consulting Group, Dunedin, September 1993.
- "Social Impacts of Land-use Change - New Zealand Literature Review", University of Otago Consulting Group, Dunedin, August 1994.
Because these two publications are already available, it is not proposed to reproduce a detailed literature review in this study. However, it is pertinent to note comments made in the executive summary to the paper listed in (i) above.
"The only reports which consider social and economic community impacts of post 1980 forest development describe East Cape (Waiapu County, now Gisborne District) and Otago (West Otago and South Otago) for early in the 1980's decade. Some indications of community issues for the early 1980's in Northland also are described in various reports. Nothing is available to report on changes since the early 1980's, and no studies have been conducted for the most recent phase of development, post 1991."
These comments are particularly important when put into the context of the macroeconomic change and reform undertaken in New Zealand post 1984, which included devolution of the NZ Forest Service, changes to primary sector taxation including the treatment of forestry expenditure, the sale of Crown-owned forestry assets, the emergence of private, off-site forestry investors, the introduction of effective Forestry Rights Regulations, and the introduction of the Resource Management Act 1991 (RMA) and its subsequent influence on regional and District planning schemes. While this study does not research a range of social impacts and issues, it does raise questions of the social impact of change on the community. These may well become the subjects of further research studies using the WDC region as an on-going study area.
10.2 Rural depopulation and effect on school rolls
The loss of on-farm employment resulting from land-use change is the greatest single impact. Losses of employment from the meat processing sector and some parts of the farm servicing sector are smaller and are most likely to be town-based (particularly in Wairoa). The on-farm employment losses will have a greater impact on rural Districts and communities through migration of people to other Districts or regions in search of work or other investment opportunities. If land-use change is concentrated on particular Districts, rural schools may close because of falling rolls, and District services may cease for reasons of viability.
Offsetting this effect is the possibility of farm workers displaced by land-use change moving into forestry employment and continuing to reside in the locality. Alternatively, forestry workers may move into the locality of the new forest development on a residential basis. However, discussion with forest owners in the WDC area indicates that the latter in particular would be against the trend, as contract forestry gangs tend to have urban bases or are contracted in from other regions.
A further factor possibly offsetting potential rural depopulation lies with the subdivision of farm homesteads into lifestyle part-time farming blocks, thus encouraging a greater retention of rural population. On balance, further depopulation in rural areas undergoing land-use change to forestry is the most likely occurrence, in common with the trend in other forestry regions of New Zealand.
Analysis of the 1991 Population Census data for the rural Districts of the WDC area indicates the following breakdown of population.
| Age | Number | |
| Less than 5 years | 522 | } |
| 5 years to 14 years | 1035 | } 1926 |
| 15 years to 19 years | 369 | } |
| Adults, 20 years to 59 years | 2733 | |
| Adults, 60 years and over | 615 | |
| Total | 5274 | |
This analysis indicates a ratio of 0.58 children per adult, or, if all adults were
living in a family situation, a family size of 3.15 individuals. A more realistic
assumption is that 75% of adults in the 20 to 59-year age group live in a family situation
with a family size of 3.88 per household.
On the basis of this assumption, the following levels of depopulation of working adults in the 20 to 59-year age group, together with their partners and children less than 20 years old, could occur over the 30-year forestry establishment and maintenance period under the base scenario.
Total people
Degree of Net |
after 30 years |
No. of people |
emigration (%) |
(aged below 60 years) |
per 1000 hectares |
25 |
108 |
2.1 |
50 |
215 |
4.1 |
75 |
323 |
6.2 |
100 |
431 |
8.3 |
The number of people per 1000 hectares of land-use change was calculated on the basis
of 2.62 FTEs per 1000 hectares, which was derived from data in section 3.0, Appendix 1 and
also contained in Table 8.1.
The age structure of the District's population is assumed constant in these
calculations. In reality there may be significant changes in structure because of
underlying demographic change over time, e.g. immigration of new residents who use land
differently and may well be in different age classes and family structures from those who
leave. This analysis has been developed on the 1991 population age structure for the rural
Wairoa District and therefore provides only a general indication of the likely scale of
outward migration and effect on school rolls associated with future land-use change to
forestry.
It could be argued that fewer persons would emigrate at the 25% or 50% level than is
estimated, on the basis that single persons would be more mobile. This argument is
countered by the fact that farm owners would also be emigrating following farm sales, and
that the majority of farm owners are in a family situation.
In addition to the potential loss of working adults and families, it is likely that
there would be some extra outward migration of people aged 60 years and over who had close
ties to those leaving. If 50% of persons 60 years and older were assumed to be in this
situation, the additional emigration after 30 years of land-use change would be as
follows.
Degree of emigration |
Emigration of |
Total emigration |
of rural employees and farm owners (%) |
persons aged 60 years and over |
(all ages) |
25 |
8 |
116 |
50 |
15 |
230 |
75 |
23 |
346 |
100 |
31 |
462 |
The inclusion of 50% of the 60 year and older age group in family situations increases
the assumed average family size used in this analysis by 0.3 persons to 4.18 per family.
The maximum depopulation associated with displaced farm employees, including owners
calculated above (of 392 people over 30 years) amounts to only 8.75% of the 1991 rural
population. This should be compared with the WDC rural population decline of 8.6% between
1981 and 1991.
The impact on rural primary school rolls can be broadly estimated using the 1991 census
data. There were 1035 children in the 5 to 14-year age group, or 1.01 per family. Assuming
an even age distribution between 5 and 14 years, the following breakdown of child numbers
by age is made for a 100% emigration situation (i.e. the maximum).
| Child age | Total after 30 years of land-use change |
No. of children per 1000 hectares |
5 to 11 years (70%) |
72 |
1.38 |
12 and 13 years (20%) |
21 |
0.40 |
14 years (10%) |
10 |
0.20 |
103 |
1.98 |
At lower assumptions of net emigration, the numbers involved can be calculated by
applying the appropriate percentage.
On the basis of a 50% net emigration of on-farm labour, the following table presents
the level of depopulation at points during the 30-year period. This allows for a
significant number of people remaining in the rural District and taking up forestry
employment opportunities.
Total persons |
||||
emigrating |
5-11 yr |
12 & 13 yr |
14 yr |
|
Year |
(all ages) |
group |
group |
group |
1995 |
15 |
2 |
0.7 |
0.35 |
1999 |
53 |
8 |
2.4 |
1.2 |
2004 |
88 |
14 |
4.0 |
2.0 |
2014 |
159 |
25 |
7.2 |
3.6 |
2024 |
230 |
36 |
10.4 |
5.2 |
The effect on rural school rolls under these assumptions will not be great if the
land-use change is spread over the WDC area. However, if it is concentrated in one or two
Districts only, the impact could cause school closures in five to ten years time. Rural
schools with small rolls (at 1994) are summarised below (Ministry of Education).
School |
1983 |
1994 roll |
Teachers roll |
Te Reinga |
21 |
14 |
1 |
Ohuka |
20 |
5 |
1.2 |
Ruakituri |
50 |
25 |
2 |
Ardkeen |
14 |
14 |
1 |
Tukemokihi |
6 |
9 |
1 |
Putere |
39 |
13 |
1 |
Waihua |
30 |
20 |
1 |
Kotemaori |
45 |
28 |
2 |
Putorino |
33 |
20 |
2.2 |
(The school rolls (1994) for all schools in the WDC area are contained in Appendix 5.1.)
Higher levels of emigration from concentrated areas of new forest establishment are
likely to accelerate impacts on specific rural schools and other services.
This effect on schools may increase if the indirect employment associated with farming
(i.e. the servicing industry) also emigrates. However, a fairly high proportion of these
services are not permanently located in the rural Districts (e.g. transport, stock and
station agencies, veterinary services, etc.), and the number of persons concerned is
unlikely to exceed 15% of the estimates made for the on-farm employment losses.
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Contact for Enquiries
Rural Affairs Coordinator
Sector Performance Policy
MAF Policy
Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry
PO Box 2526
Wellington
NEW ZEALAND
Phone: +64 4 894 0675
Fax: +64 4 4 894 0745
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