- Summary
- 3.1 Estimating Migration
- 3.2 Net Inmigration to Rural, Minor Urban and Urban areas
- 3.3 Migration at the Regional Level
- 3.4 Conclusion
3.0 MIGRATION
Summary
Understanding the cause of changes in population and its age structure requires an understanding of the relative effects of fertility, mortality and migration, as well as the effects of aging on the existing demographic structure of the population. With declining fertility rates, migration has become an increasingly important factor in explaining and understanding changes in population. One of the major determining factors of migration are changing economic conditions. The last decade has seen dramatic changes in New Zealand's economic structure and in the fortune of rural primary industries in particular. These changes are likely to be strongly related to migration patterns between 1986 and 1991. Between 1986 and 1991 there were:
- high levels of out migration of young persons (aged 15-24) from both rural and minor urban areas
- high levels of in migration of persons aged 30-44 to rural areas, at a much higher rate than in migration to urban areas, indicating urban to rural and/or minor urban to rural drift of persons in this age range
- particularly high levels of out migration of young persons (aged 15-24) from rural areas in the Hawke's Bay, Wairarapa, East Cape, Wanganui, Southland and Tongariro regions
- less out migration of some age groups and more in migration of some age groups to and from the rural and minor urban areas in regions containing large urban areas, than in most other regions
3.1 Estimating Migration
The level of migration to and from an area is generally dependent on the age composition of its population and on economic factors. In this study net migration by age group has been estimated by comparing the effect of aging the population between census periods with the actual population, making an adjustment for mortality.
The mortality rate within each age group in a particular area has been assumed to be the same as the New Zealand wide mortality rate for that age group over the same period. The 1986 age groups were aged and the effects of mortality estimated to estimate the expected 1991 population for each area in the absence of net migration. The expected number was then subtracted from the actual 1991 population to obtain an estimated number of people gained or lost by that area through migration within a particular age group.
Estimated net migration figures were then expressed as a percentage of the 1991 population within that age group, in order to provide a relative measure of the estimated migration rates of different areas with different sized populations. For example, rural areas had an estimated net inmigration rate of -3.5% in the 10-14 year old age group between 1986 and 1991. This means that in net, rural areas lost the equivalent of 3.5% of their 1986 population within the 6-9 year age group. However, it is important to note that the above method of estimating net immigration is likely to result in errors for age groups with relatively high mortality, and for this reason the estimated net inmigration levels for age groups above 60 years have not been presented in this report.
3.2 Net Inmigration to Rural, Minor Urban and Urban areas
Between 1986 and 1991 both minor urban and rural areas lost considerable numbers of persons in the 15-19 and 20-24 year age groups through out migration. As was discussed previously this is a well-established trend, and is attributable to educational and employment opportunities of the large towns and cities attracting young people away. The gain to urban areas of persons aged 15-19 through net outmigration is also a reflection of this fact.
It is important to note that some of the out migration from rural and minor urban areas of persons in the 20-24 age group can be attributed to migration overseas. Even urban areas experienced a net loss of persons aged 20-24 due to migration, mostly overseas, although admittedly their proportional loss was considerably less than that experienced by minor urban and rural areas.
On a more positive note, rural areas experienced relatively high levels of inmigration of the 30-34, 35-39 and 40-44 years age groups between 1986 and 1991. The proportional level of this was considerably higher than net inmigration to urban areas, and would suggest that a significant number of middle aged persons were moving from urban areas to rural areas. Over the same period, minor urban areas experienced relatively high levels of net out migration of people in these age groups. It is possible that some of these people moved to rural areas, although most probably moved to urban areas.
This net inmigration of those in the 30-44 age group to rural areas is considered a long-term trend, helping to stabilise the rural labour force in the face of high net out migration of young people and loss to the labour force from retirement. However, it is likely that the level of migration of 30-44 year olds to rural areas was higher than usual over the 1986 to 1991 period in reaction to the bleak job prospects of many in depressed minor urban and urban job markets. The relatively low cost of living and the more developed non-cash economy of some rural areas would have helped rural people to maintain a higher quality lifestyle for the same income as urban dwellers during this recession.
In the 50-54 and 55-59 year age groups, both rural and minor urban areas experienced far less out migration than urban areas. It is possible that this also reflects depressed economic conditions with less people moving to urban areas than has traditionally been the case. In fact, minor urban areas experienced a high level of net inmigration of the 55-59 year age group, probably from both rural and urban areas for pre-retirement purposes.
While net migration has not been calculated for the age groups 60 years and above, it seems probable that minor urban areas in particular experienced net inmigration of elderly between 1986 and 1991, as indicated by the very high percentage increases in the elderly age groups in these areas over the period and discussed in the previous chapter. Amongst other factors, the lower cost of housing in minor urban areas than urban areas may be making them more desirable as retirement centres in a time when retirement incomes are becoming increasingly limited. Other attractions of retirement migration from urban to minor urban areas include the small community atmosphere, the perceived lower crime rates than larger urban areas, and (in some areas) the climate. Small provincial towns are popular retirement destinations for elderly farmers.
The migration of school aged children to and from minor urban and rural areas is dependent on the migration of their parents. Between 1986 and 1991 both minor urban and rural areas experienced net in migration of 5-9 year olds, which in the case of rural areas is probably a reflection of the high levels of inmigration of persons aged between 25 and 39. In the 10-14 year age groups however, both minor urban and rural areas experienced a net loss of population through migration. The migration of young teenagers to tertiary educational institutions in the larger centres is likely to be a major driving factor for this.
Relative levels of migration to and from rural areas between 1986 and 1991, did not only differ by age group, but also by gender. In particular rural areas as a whole lost considerably more women than men from the 15-19 year old age groups, and gained considerably more women than men in the 25-29, and 30-34 year age groups (age group in 1991). This may reflect a higher proportion of rural women than men going on to tertiary training or entering the urban labour market. The relatively high levels of return migration to rural areas of women in the 25-29 and 30-34 year age groups may reflect the return of women originally from rural areas after a period of training, and I or employment outside those areas. However, a longer term study of the migration behaviour of specific individuals would be need to confirm this fact. Perhaps the migration to rural areas of women in these age groups reflects the formation of rural families and/or a return for employment.
3.3 Migration at the Regional Level
While the net loss of young people and the net gain of middle aged persons were general migration trends for minor urban and rural areas, there was considerable variation between the regions in the magnitude of these trends.
Regions with particularly high levels of out migration of youth (15-19 years) from both rural and minor urban areas include Hawke's Bay, Wairarapa and Tongariro, while those with relatively low levels were Auckland, Wellington, Canterbury and Horowhenua. The existence of significant secondary and tertiary education institutions in the Auckland, Wellington, Canterbury and Horowhenua regions is the probable reason for the relatively low levels of out migration from these regions. Other regions with particularly high levels of outmigration of youth from rural areas are Southland, East Cape and Wanganui.
While outmigration of youth reached very high levels in a number of regions, the outmigration of this group was not as dramatic as the outmigration of the 20-24 year age group. In several regions the outmigration of the 20-24 age group from rural areas over the 1986 to 1991 period represented a loss of more than half of the persons in the age group. In Southland outmigration of this age group represented a loss of over three quarters of the age group. Other regions with particularly high levels of outmigration of 20-24 year olds from both rural and minor urban areas include Hawke's Bay, Taranaki, Aorangi and the Wairarapa.
In the age groups between 25 and 39 years, rural areas as a whole gained population through migration over the 1986 to 1991 period. At the regional level however, a large number of regions lost population in these age groups, while others made very large increases through migration. In particular the Clutha-Central Otago, Wanganui, East Cape, Southland, Taranaki and Tongariro regions all experienced large declines. Regions experiencing large net gains of population in these age groups through migration include Auckland, Wellington, Canterbury and the Horowhenua. Several other regions made small gains in these age groups including Northland, Bay of Plenty, and Thames Valley. It seems probable that these regional differences between the migration rates of persons in the 25 to 39 year age range can be attributed almost solely to the differences in their employment opportunities.
Similar disparities exist between the regions in the migration of 25 to 39 year olds to and from minor urban areas.
3.4 Conclusion
In summary, the regions can be divided into three distinct groups according to the patterns of net migration to and from their rural areas between 1986 and 1991.
There are regions which had higher levels of net inmigration and lower levels of net outmigration by age group than New Zealand as a whole over the period. This includes the Auckland, Bay of Plenty (excluding the 20-24 year age group), Canterbury, Coastal-North Otago (excluding the 40-44 year age group), and Horowhenua regions. Net inmigration by age group for the Auckland region is illustrative of this pattern.
There are regions which had higher levels of net out migration and lower levels of net inmigration by age group than New Zealand as a whole. These include the East Cape (excluding the 45-49 year age group), Hawke's Bay, Southland, Taranaki (excluding the 15-19 year age group), Wanganui, and West Coast (excluding the 25-29 year age group) regions. Net inmigration figures for the Southland region are illustrative of this pattern.
The other group of regions have a more mixed pattern of net migration by age group, although interestingly in the Manawatu, Nelson Bays, Thames Valley and Waikato regions, net outmigration of those aged between 15 and 30 from rural areas has been proportionately less than for New Zealand as a whole. The employment and educational opportunities afforded by these regions' relative proximity to large urban centres, and their relatively diverse primary economic bases are a possible explanation for this.
In conclusion, the different migration history of the rural regions is closely associated with changes in regional employment. The need to go to large centres for advanced education, results in long-term net outflows of population from rural to urban areas. Over the recent period the net outmigration of women in this age group has been considerably higher than men. Net migration by working age (25 to 39 year age range) people to take up opportunities for a rural lifestyle and rural work is a long term characteristic of rural urban migration. Migration of rural and urban dwellers to minor urban areas for retirement purposes is also a long term migration characteristic of rural NZ. However, there are considerable regional differences in these patterns reflecting their relative residential attractiveness and economic vitality amongst other matters. This diversity in migration patterns illustrates the danger in treating "rural" New Zealand as a whole, and the need to recognise local differences when examining demographic change.
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