2. POPULATION
Summary
Over the 1986 to 1991 period New Zealand's minor urban and rural areas underwent significant changes in population. The principal changes, and inter regional differences in the changes are summarised below.
- the rate of population increase was less in rural and minor urban areas than in urban areas between 1986 and 1991
- the Auckland, Wellington and Horowhenua regions had significant rural population gains between 1986 and 1991
- the Southland, Wanganui and Tongariro regions had large rural population losses between 1986 and 1991
- between 1986 and 1991 Northland overtook Waikato as the region with the largest rural population
- at a more localised level areas experiencing large declines in rural population tended to be those reliant on pastoral agriculture or forestry employment, such as Southland, Wanganui, Tongariro, East Cape and the West Coast
- between 1986 and 1991 the largest increases in rural population density occurred in the Auckland, Thames Valley, Bay of Plenty, Wellington and Marlborough regions
- between 1986 and 1991 the largest decreases in rural population density occurred in the Taranaki, Tongariro and Wanganui regions
- between 1986 and 1991, large decreases in the minor urban population of the CluthaCentral Otago region followed the wind down of major construction work
- both minor urban and rural areas experienced large reductions in population in the 15 and 24 years age group between 1986 and 1991
- the East Cape region had the highest rural youth dependency ratio in 1991 of any region, and this ratio increased between 1986 and 1991, in contrast to all other regions except the Horowhenua
2.1 Population Distribution
The population of rural and minor urban areas increased by approximately 1.4%, less than the 3.3% increase in the population as a whole, between 1986 and 1991. The economic recession in the rural sector, the perceived greater employment and educational opportunities in urban areas, and the general aging of the population are the most likely reasons for this.
Even though the rate of population change was different in rural and minor urban areas from urban areas, the percentage distribution of the country's population between the different types of area remained relatively unchanged between 1986 and 1991. In 1991, 15.6% of the population lived in rural areas, 9.1% in minor urban areas and 75.2% in urban areas.
Population change between 1986 and 1991 was not uniform between the regions. Rural area populations increased substantially in the Auckland (16.6%), Wellington (15.2%), and Horowhenua (14.1%) regions; and decreased substantially in the Southland (-8.6%), Wanganui (-5.1%) and Tongariro (-4.7%) regions.
Large proportional population increases occurred in the minor urban areas of the Auckland (13.7%), Horowhenua (11%), Nelson Bays (8.8%) and East Cape (8.8%) regions; and large decreases occurred in the Wanganui (-10.0%), Clutha-Central outgo (-7.0%) and Hawke's Bay (-4.5%) regions.
Although not experiencing as high a proportional increase in rural population between 1986 and 1991 as some other regions, the Northland region overtook the Waikato region to become the region with the highest rural population in New Zealand in 1991. The Waikato did however maintain its position as the region with the largest minor urban area population, reflecting the proliferation of small to medium sized rural centres in an area of intensive agricultural land use.
Different proportional population changes between the regions to some extent reflect the differing impact of the recession on their various economic structures and differing age structures, as well as a continuation of long-term trends, including rural urban migration for employment or education, and migration for retirement. Regions containing large urban centres, especially Auckland and Wellington, experienced high rates of population growth in rural and minor urban areas; while those containing considerable amounts of relatively marginal agricultural land or with considerable forestry employment, such as East Cape, Wanganui, and Tongariro, experienced large declines.
When population changes are examined at a more detailed spatial level, more localised areas of population increase and decrease are apparent. Areas with very high proportional levels of rural and minor population growth between 1986 and 1991 include the Queenstown district, the mid Canterbury Plains, the Kapiti Coast/Horowhenua, the northern Bay of Plenty/Coromandel and northern Northland. These are areas experiencing growth in periurban rural development, in leisure based industries, and are located in close proximity to tourist hubs or major urban centres. Areas with large decreases tend to be those with extensive pastoral agriculture or forestry based economies. These include the inland Wanganui/Rangitikei hill country, parts of Westland, and large tracts of Southland, as well as isolated areas elsewhere. The economic viability of much of this land for agricultural purposes was significantly affected by depressed product prices, and it is probable that this has resulted in out migration from their rural areas. The major wind down of the state's involvement in forestry operations has been another major cause of rural population decline in selected areas.
2.2 Population Density
While large absolute and proportional increases or declines in rural or minor urban population appear dramatic, they are not always as significant as they seem because an area may have a very large absolute population, or the proportional increases may be for an area with a small population base. An alternative means of measuring population change is to express it per unit of land area. This can easily be achieved using a GIS (Geographic Information System).
Between 1986 and 1991 the regions with the highest densities of rural population growth were Auckland, Thames Valley, Bay of Plenty, Wellington and Marlborough. Significantly, the density of rural population change in the Auckland region was three times higher than in any other region, probably a reflection of the vicinity of its rural areas to a large metropolitan area, and consequently high rural population densities. The regions with the highest levels of decline in rural population per unit of land area were East Coast, Taranaki, Tongariro, and Wanganui. Generally high densities of population growth or decline occurred in regions which had high population densities to begin with.
Within the regions there was considerable diversity in the density of population change. Particularly high densities occurred in mid Canterbury, the Kapiti and Horowhenua areas, the northern Bay of Plenty and Coromandel, in parts of the Waikato and around Auckland.
High population densities in the periurban areas was taken into account in the redrawing of the boundaries of rural areas for the 1991 census. Some of the high-density periurban rural areas were incorporated into the nearby main or minor urban areas. This explains why the national rural population on 1991 boundaries is less than the rural population on 1986 boundaries.
Despite changes in total population, the estimated regional rural population densities remain much the same as was recorded for 1986 in part one of this study. The highest rural population density is in the top half of the North Island, in particular in the Waikato; while the lowest densities occur in the mountainous regions of the South Island and the central Plateau of the North Island.
2.3 Age Structure
In 1991 both minor urban and rural areas had similar age structures, although minor urban areas tended to have a larger percentage of their populations in the 60 years and above age groups, and a lesser percentage in the 30-44 year age groups than rural areas. In contrast to urban, both rural and minor urban areas had a higher proportion of children, lower proportions of youth and young adults, and proportionally less elderly.
Both rural and minor urban areas experienced similar changes in the age structures of their populations between 1986 and 1991. Both experienced increases in the under 5 years age group, decreases in the 5-29 year age groups and increases in most other age groups. Large proportional declines in the population aged between 10 and 29 years reflect the movement of young persons to the urban areas for both employment and education, a trend which is well established. While there is evidence that proportionally more women than men may migrate out away from rural areas, this has not been investigated here. Large increases in the very old age groups (75 years+) reflect the ageing of the population, and in the case of minor urban areas in particular, their function as retirement centres.
To better understand the changes in population which were unique to the 1986-1991 period compared with the previous 1981-1986 intercensal period, it was necessary to use data from Supermap2 rather than the customised census tables employed thus far. The definition of rural and minor urban employed in Superrnap2 is different from that employed in the customised tables. While the following brief discussion is based on a different definition, we believe that similar changes will have occurred in rural and minor urban areas as previously defined. In the following section rural is defined as rural areas and rural centres combined, based on 1991 definitions.
While rural areas experienced increases in population aged 45 and above between 1986 and 1991, the rate of this increase actually accelerated between 1986 and 1991, compared with between 1981 and 1986. This was also the case in minor urban areas for the population aged 65 years and over Although some of this increase may be attributed to the cohort affects of an ageing population, it is a trend which is not reflected at the national level, where the rate of increase in the 60-64, 75-84, and 85+ age groups actually declined over the 1986-91 intercensal period compared with the previous 1981-86 intercensal period. In other words the numbers of persons aged 65 years and over are actually increasing at a faster rate in rural and minor urban areas than in the country as a whole. These different rates of increase can not be explained just by the ageing effects of different age structures in minor urban and rural areas compared with urban areas as all three types of area had similar proportions of population in the pre -retirement and retired age groups in 1986.
While the elderly population in rural and minor urban areas increased at a faster rate than in the country as a whole between 1986 and 1991, population in the 15-19 and 20-24 age groups decreased at a faster rate than in the country as a whole, and more importantly at a rate which increased between 1986 and 1991 compared with the previous 1981-86 intercensal period. It is probable that the increasing requirement for tertiary training and depressed rural employment opportunities during the 1986-91 intercensal period resulted in an increased rate of rural-urban migration of these age groups. The decreasing population in these age groups also reflects cohort aging.
Returning to our customised data and 1986 definitions reveals considerable regional diversity in population changes by age group between 1986 and 1991. Regions with high proportional rates of increase in elderly population include Northland, Auckland, Bay of Plenty, Hawke's Bay, Taranaki and Canterbury. The rural areas of some of these regions also had high rates of population increase in their elderly populations between 1986 and 1991. In addition the rural areas of the Wairarapa, Nelson Bays and Marlborough regions also had very high rates of increase in elderly population reflecting their increasing importance as retirement areas, as well as the general ageing of their populations.
Changes in youth aged population between 1986 and 1991 also differ considerably between the regions despite a general reduction overall. Both rural and minor urban areas in Auckland, Wellington and the Horowhenua experienced considerable increases in youth aged population, while large decreases were experienced in the Southland, Tongariro and Hawke's Bay regions. The increase in the rural and minor urban youth aged population of Auckland, Wellington and Horowhenua may be explained by the lower costs of accommodation in outlying periurban areas than more accessible inner suburban areas. Given the large increase in unemployment amongst youth over the 1986 to 1991 period, such migration behaviour maintains access to metropolitan areas for low-income youth while keeping their cost of living down.
At the more local level there is considerable variation in population changes by age group within rural areas. In particular, large increases in the elderly (65+ years) population have occurred in northern Northland, the eastern Coromandel, and inland Hawke's Bay, while large increases in the young population (<15 years) have occurred in the northern Bay of Plenty, throughout Northland, on the Kapiti-Manawatu coastal area, in mid Canterbury and in the Queenstown district amongst others.
One means by which the characteristics of an area's age structure can be expressed is with dependency ratios. These express the number of persons in a particular age range as a ratio of those in another age range. The "youth" dependency ratio refers to the ratio of the number of school and younger aged population (under 15 years) to the number of working age population (15-64 years). The "aged" dependency ratio refers to the ratio of the number of elderly (65+ years) to the number of working age population. The "total" dependency ratio refers to the number of non working age population (0-14 and 65+ years) to the number of working age population (15-64 years).
In 1991 the region which had the highest youth dependency ratio in both minor urban and rural areas was the East Cape. This is largely a reflection of the youthfulness of its Maori population. Other regions with high rural and minor urban youth dependency ratios include Taranaki, Bay of Plenty and Tongariro. Generally the youth dependency ratio declined in the minor urban and rural areas of the regions between 1986 and 1991, except for the minor urban areas of the East Cape and Horowhenua regions.
Several regions which experienced decreasing youth dependency ratios for their rural populations between 1986 and 1991, also experienced increases in their rural populations aged under 15 years. This was the case in the Auckland, Horowhenua and Wellington regions. The reason for decline in the youth dependency ratio, despite increases in the youth population is because the working age population in these areas also increased over the same period but at a faster rate than the youth population. These increases can be attributed to the development of periurban "dormitory" suburbs and lifestyle rural blocks with large numbers of working age commuters to major urban centres.
In contrast with the youth dependency ratio, the aged dependency ratio increased in the rural areas of most regions between 1986 and 1991. The exceptions to this were the Auckland, Horowhenua and Wellington regions which experienced a considerable expansion of their working age rural populations over the period, at a rate which exceeded the increase in elderly population. The large increase in working age population can be partly explained by periurban development.
In contrast to rural areas, minor urban areas have considerably higher aged dependency ratios, reflecting the need for elderly to be relatively close to various services. Th 1991 the regions with the highest aged dependency ratios were Aorangi, Horowhenua and Thames Valley.
2.4 Conclusion
Between 1986 and 1991 minor urban and rural areas experienced a smaller increase in population than urban areas. This is a long established trend and largely reflects rural urban migration. Over the period however, both rural and minor urban areas experienced losses of persons aged 15-24 at a faster rate than over the previous intercensal period. Areas particularly prone to population loss were those reliant on extensive pastoral agriculture or forestry, such as Southland, Wanganui, West Coast and Tongariro. In contrast, the regions containing large urban areas experienced considerable increases in rural population between 1986 and 1991. This was especially the case in the Auckland, Wellington and Horowhenua regions.
The recession in the rural sector, and particularly in extensive pastoral farming and the restructuring of state forestry activities has had a considerable impact on the population in rural areas, and has stimulated further rural to urban migration of young adults beyond previous levels. Continued periurban development in rural areas on the vicinity of large metropolitan areas is also reflected in regional population changes over the period.
| © MAF 1999 | ||
| MAFnet Help | Important Disclaimer |
Contact for Enquiries
Rural Affairs Coordinator
Sector Performance Policy
MAF Policy
Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry
PO Box 2526
Wellington
NEW ZEALAND
Phone: +64 4 894 0675
Fax: +64 4 4 894 0745
Contact this person
