1.0 INTRODUCTION

1.1 Purpose

Like part one of this study (New Zealand Regional Diversity: A 1986 Profile), the purpose of this report is to assist the Rural Resources Unit of MAF Policy in meeting the Department's contracted outcome of "adequate access to basic services for rural communities" and "an agricultural industry that is confident, self-reliant, profitable, and forward looking", by recording the nature and diversity of recent demographic and economic changes in rural New Zealand.

As stated in part one, it is necessary to examine changes in individual rural areas, rather than rural New Zealand as a whole, in order for services and resources to be targeted according to the needs of individual areas. A more aggregated level of analysis masks these needs. Information on individual regions also contributes to a better understanding of the rural socioeconomic environment which is impacting on the agricultural sector.

1.2 Aims

The aim of this report is to describe and discuss changes to the demographic, industrial, and service sector structures of New Zealand's rural areas between 1986 and 1991. It aims to identify the broad demographic and employment changes in rural New Zealand over the 1986-91 period, and illustrate the diversity in the nature and magnitude of changes between individual rural areas over the 1986 to 1991 period. It is hoped that the information in this report will contribute to a better understanding of the implications of these demographic and employment changes for rural services and infrastructure planning.

1.3 Report Structure

This report consists of seven chapters. The first of these is an introduction which outlines the report's aims, methodology, structure and data sources. The second section examines demographic changes, the third migration, the fourth changes in employment and industry, the fifth changes in selected services and the sixth compares the characteristics of New Zealand's rural areas on 1986 boundaries with those on 1991 boundaries. This is followed by the seventh consisting of a conclusion and discussion of the implications of changes in the characteristics of rural New Zealand for rural services and infrastructure provision. Extensive tables are provided as appendices.

Before examining the changes which have taken place in rural New Zealand between 1986 and 1991, part one of this study will be briefly summarised. Part one provides a baseline against which changes can be compared.

1.4 Definitions

The definitions of rural areas are changing over time as administrative boundaries and populations change. Unless otherwise stated, all figures quoted for rural, minor urban and urban areas are for the 1986 definitions and are based on 1986 administrative cases. Under the 1986 definition, rural areas are those which are located outside centres of 1,000 or more people. It is important to appreciate that rural areas incorporate very small population centres with rural locations, which under more recent definitions have been classified separately as rural centres. Minor urban areas are those with populations between 1,000 and 9,999, while main urban areas (as used here which also incorporates secondary urban areas) have populations of 10,000 or more. Generally minor urban areas correspond with small rural towns. Definitions of minor urban and rural areas have changed since 1986 as have administrative boundaries. hi some instances 1991 definitions and boundaries are used. This is noted in the appropriate places in the text.

Under the 1991 classification of urban and rural areas, an additional category known as a rural centre was introduced. This corresponded to localities with populations of between 300 and 999 persons. The introduction of a rural centre category goes part way to recognising the inherent structural and social differences of different communities that might be classed as having a rural location. A more detailed and informed understanding of population changes in rural areas will be facilitated by these new definitions. For example, rural centres have a much higher proportion of elderly than rural areas, yet under the previous definition the two were amalgamated into one category.

Other geographic boundaries used in this report are local government regions and area units. It is important to recognise that the boundaries of local government regions have recently changed, reducing the number of local government administrative regions from 22 to 14. Unless otherwise indicated the 1986 boundaries form the basis of figures in this report. Area units are a statistical unit which are the equivalent of suburbs, in main urban areas. In the hierarchy of statistical units used in New Zealand, the area unit falls intermediate in size between the meshblock (the smallest statistical unit) and the territorial local authority. 1986 boundaries have been used to ensure comparability with part one of the study.

In this report maps are used to convey information. The boundaries of areas represented on these maps conform to the various geographic boundaries mentioned above. Boundaries for areas which are larger than area units, have been constructed by aggregating area units and dissolving the boundaries between them. These digital area unit boundaries have been used under sublicense from PC 015 Limited and were developed from raw material copyrighted by the Department of Statistics and the Department of Survey and Land Information.

1.5 Data Sources

The main sources of data for this study are the 1986 and the 1991 New Zealand Censuses of Population and Dwellings. A number of customised tables of data from these two censuses were purchased from the Department of Statistics by MAF for the purposes of this report. Unless otherwise stated, all figures quoted in this report are from the customised census tables.

The customised census tables used in the study are based on the usual residence of the population. This is known as the dejure population. An alternative would be to use tables based on the census night address of the population.

1.6 Methodology

Statistical tables from the Department of Statistics were processed and analysed using a variety of software packages including Microsoft Excel, Occam Muse, and customised programs written in Pascal. The software package used for mapping was Atlas*Pro for the Macintosh. Atlas*GIS was also used in preparing the maps for use with Atlas*Pro and for calculating the areas of various geographic units.

The maps used for presenting statistical information in this report are thematic maps. A thematic map displays geographic areas and localities as polygons and points respectively, and shows geographic areas as shaded or cross hatched according to where the areas fit relative to some class interval scale. This scale represents an attribute for those areas, for example the percentage change between 1986 and 1991 in each area's population aged 5-19 years. The values of this characteristic for the areas on the map would be broken into a number of intervals, and each interval represented by a different shading pattern for polygons, and by different point symbols for localities. In this way, the variation in values with geography is illustrated.

In this report a hexile approach is employed to derive the upper and lower values of each of the class intervals displayed on a map. With this approach the values of some characteristic of all areas to be displayed on a map, are ranked from lowest to highest. The list of values is then split into six parts, so that the same number of areas fall within each part. The lowest and highest values within each part then form the boundaries of each class interval. A more detailed discussion about mapping and the definition of class intervals was given in part one of this study.

1.7 Rural New Zealand in 1986

Population

Part one of this study found that there was great diversity in the population characteristics of the rural areas of New Zealand's regions. In 1986 the Waikato and Northland regions had the highest rural populations in absolute terms while Auckland, and Thames Valley had the highest regional rural population densities. The region with the lowest rural population density was the West Coast. However, when the population densities of rural areas were examined at the area unit level, a different trend was apparent. The highest densities existed in areas of intensive agriculture around the peripheries of the larger provincial towns and cities, for example around Napier and Hastings.

As well as substantial spatial variation in population densities there was spatial variation in the demographic structures of rural areas. Generally, those areas which had relatively young populations were those which had high proportions of Maori, reflecting the relative youthfulness of the Maori population compared with the population as a whole. These areas included East Cape, Hawke's Bay, and the Bay of Plenty. Areas which had relatively old populations tended to be retirement destinations, or areas where the rural economy had been relatively static or contracting over an extended period, and included Auckland, Coastal-North Otago, the West Coast, Nelson and Marlborough.

Industries and Services

In 1986 about a third of employment in rural areas was in agricultural and livestock production, and related agricultural industries, while about 50% of employment in rural areas was in the service sector. However, when these figures were decomposed by region, it was apparent that some areas had a substantially higher percentage of their work force engaged in agricultural and livestock, and related industries, than others. The regions with the highest percentage of their work forces in agriculture and livestock production, and related industries, were Nelson Bays, East Cape and Southland. Those with the highest percentage of employment in services included Wanganui, Wellington, Canterbury and Otago.

Part one also found that there was substantial variation between the regions in the percentage of their work forces engaged in agriculture and livestock production, and in the changes in the supply of non agricultural jobs between 1976 and 1986. While the supply of non agricultural jobs decreased by 4% in rural areas as a whole over the period, it increased in some regions by over 30% (Wellington, Northland and the Bay of Plenty) and decreased in some regions by about 30% (West Coast, Horowhenua) over the same period.

The findings of part one of the study are perhaps best summarised by its most important conclusion:

    "The New Zealand economy is very diverse at the regional level and this reflects an even greater diversity at the local level. This level of analysis demonstrates that the national aggregate masks this diversity and provides a false picture of what can be expected on moving from the national level to many af not most rural areas of the country. In statistical terms, the national aggregate is not derived from a homogeneous population but several distinct types of regional economy..."

This conclusion needs to be kept in mind when examining changes in rural New Zealand between 1986 and 1991.

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