SUMMARY
Introduction
Like part one of this study (New Zealand Regional Diversity: A 1986 Profile), the purpose of this report is to assist the Rural Resources Unit of MAF Policy in meeting the Department's contracted outcome of "adequate access to basic services for rural communities" and "an agricultural industry that is confident, self-reliant, profitable, and forward looking", by recording the nature and diversity of recent demographic and economic changes in rural New Zealand.
Part one concluded that the "New Zealand economy is very diverse at the regional level and this reflects an even greater diversity at the local level. This level of analysis demonstrates that the national aggregate masks this diversity and provides a false picture of what can be expected on moving from the national level to many if not most rural areas of the country. In statistical terms, the national aggregate is not derived from a homogeneous population but several distinct types of regional economy." This conclusion needs to be kept in mind when examining changes in rural New Zealand between 1986 and 1991.
Population
Between 1986 and 1991 minor urban and rural areas experienced a smaller increase in population than urban areas. This is a long established trend and largely reflects rural urban migration. Over the period however, both rural and minor urban areas experienced losses of persons aged 15-24 at a faster rate than over the previous intercensal period. Areas particularly prone to population loss were those reliant on extensive pastoral agriculture or forestry, such as Southland, Wanganui, West Coast and Tongariro. In contrast, the regions containing large urban areas experienced considerable increases in rural population between 1986 and 1991. This was especially the case in the Auckland, Wellington and Horowhenua regions.
The recession in the rural sector, and particularly in extensive pastoral farming and the restructuring of state forestry activities has had a considerable impact on the population in rural areas, and has stimulated further rural to urban migration of young adults beyond previous levels. Continued periurban development in rural areas on the vicinity of large metropolitan areas is also reflected in regional population changes over the period.
Main trends and changes in population are listed below:
- the rate of population increase was less in rural and minor urban areas than in urban areas between 1986 and 1991
- the Auckland, Wellington and Horowhenua regions had significant rural population gains between 1986 and 1991
- the Southland, Wanganui and Tongariro regions had large rural population losses between 1986 and 1991 between 1986 and 1991.
- Northland overtook Waikato as the region with the largest rural population
- at a more localised level areas experiencing large declines in rural population tended to be those reliant on pastoral agriculture or forestry employment, such as Southland, Wanganui, Tongariro, East Cape and the West Coast
- between 1986 and 1991 the largest increases in rural population density occurred in the Auckland, Thames Valley, Bay of Plenty, Wellington and Marlborough region
- between 1986 and 1991 the largest decreases in rural population density occurred in the Taranaki, Tongariro and Wanganui regions
- between 1986 and 1991, large decreases in the minor urban population of the CluthaCentral Otago region followed the wind down of major construction work
- both minor urban and rural areas experienced large reductions in population in the 15 and 24 years age group between 1986 and 1991
- the East Cape region had the highest rural youth dependency ratio in 1991 of any region, and this ratio increased between 1986 and 1991, in contrast to all other regions except the Homwhenua
Migration
The different migration history of the rural regions is closely associated with changes in regional employment. The need to go to large centres for advanced education, results in long-term net out flows of young adults from rural to urban areas. Over the recent period the net out-migration of young women has been considerably higher than men. Net migration by working age (25 to 39 year age range) people to take up opportunities for a rural lifestyle and rural work is a long term characteristic of rural urban migration. Migration of rural and urban dwellers to minor urban areas for retirement purposes is also a long term migration characteristic of rural New Zealand. However, there are considerable regional differences in these patterns reflecting their relative residential attractiveness and economic vitality amongst other matters. This diversity in migration patterns illustrates the danger in treating "rural" New Zealand as a whole, and the need to recognise local differences when examining demographic change.
Between 1986 and 1991 there were:
- high levels of out migration of young persons (aged 15-24) from both rural and minor urban areas
- high levels of in migration of persons aged 30-44 to rural areas, at a much higher rate than in migration to urban areas, indicating urban to rural and/or minor urban to rural drift of persons in this age range
- particularly high levels of out migration of young persons (aged 15-24) from rural areas in the Hawke's Bay, Wairarapa, East Cape, Wanganui, Southland and Tongariro regions
- less out migration of some age groups and more in migration of some age groups to and from the rural and minor urban areas in regions containing large urban areas, than in most other regions
Employment
The period between 1986 and 1991 was one of economy wide restructuring and recession. Rural areas, and minor urban areas lost a considerable number of jobs as a result. Large loss of jobs in manufacturing industries associated with the rural sector were experienced in minor urban areas, while rural areas suffered major job loss resulting from unfavourable trading in traditional sheep, beef and dairy farming industries. Proportional reductions in total employment were less in rural areas than the national average, and higher in minor urban areas than the national average. It is minor urban areas, and not rural areas per se, which have borne the brunt of major employment losses over the 1986 to 1991 period.
Changes in employment were not uniform throughout the regions. Regions which suffered very high proportional losses of rural employment were Northland, the East Cape and the West Coast. Employment gains did, however, occur in the rural and minor urban areas of regions containing large urban areas such as Auckland and Wellington.
Young adults have suffered disproportionately from employment losses in both rural and minor urban areas. While the labour force participation rates of all age groups fell in both minor urban and rural areas between 1986 and 1991, young adults (20-24 years) suffered most acutely from lack of employment opportunities resulting from the recession.
Between 1986 and 1991:
- the relative contribution of community, social and personal services, business and financial services, and wholesale, retail, restaurants and hotels to total employment in both minor urban and rural areas increased
- the relative contribution of agriculture and livestock production to total employment in rural areas declined
- minor urban areas lost proportionally nearly three times as many jobs as rural areas
- minor urban area job losses were high in the transport, storage and communication food processing, and utility industries
- rural area job losses were high in the forestry and logging, hunting and trapping, and livestock and agricultural production industries
- the majority of job losses in minor urban and rural areas were in part-time positions
- the regions experiencing the greatest jobs losses from rural areas in absolute terms were Northland, Wanganui and Tongariro
- the Northland, the East Cape and Westland regions lost proportionally more jobs from rural areas than any other region
- regions containing large urban areas, including Auckland, Wellington and Canterbury, had increases in rural employment
- there were large reductions in employment in food processing industries in the minor urban areas of a number of regions
- the labour-force participation of youth (aged 15-19) decreased by more than 30% in both rural and minor urban areas
- the 15-24 and the 40-60 year old age groups suffered a greater loss of jobs than other age groups in rural areas and minor urban areas
Employment in Services
Regions which consistently have low levels of per capita employment in a number of selected services include the East Cape, Tongariro and Wanganui. Those which generally have above average levels of per capita employment in selected services are those which contain large urban areas. This includes the Auckland, Wellington, Canterbury and Coastal-North Outgo regions.
In summary:
- between 1986 and 1991, there were large increases in per capita employment in welfare services and real estate and business services in rural and minor urban areas combined; and there were large decreases in per capita employment in personal and household services
- the Southland and Hawke's Bay and Clutha Central Otago regions have high levels of per capita employment in agricultural services, while the Wairarapa and Tongariro regions experienced large declines in per capita employment in agricultural services between 1986 and 1991
- there are relative]y small differences between regions in per capita employment in educational services in combined minor urban and rural areas, and almost all regions experienced an increase in per capita employment in these services between 1986 and 1991
- the combined rural and minor urban areas of most regions experienced a reduction in per capita employment in health and medical services between 1986 and 1991
- there is considerable variation between regions in per capita employment in health and medical services in combined minor urban and rural areas, with particularly high levels in the West Coast and Coastal North Outgo regions, and particularly low levels in the Bay of Plenty, Marlborough and Taranaki regions
- per capita employment in personal and household services declined substantially in the combined rural and minor urban areas of all regions between 1986 and 1991, with particularly low levels occurring in the East Cape and Wanganui regions
Conclusion
Between 1986 and 1991 changes in population, employment and service provision, differed between minor urban and rural areas and regions. In general minor urban areas were considerably more affected by employment losses than rural areas. Similarly so were the regions heavily reliant on a large sheep and beef farming or forestry base, and/or with large amounts of manufacturing, including food processing industries, than those with large service sectors. More positively however, the rural areas of a number of regions gained significant amounts of population in many of the age groups over 30 years, and rural areas as a whok lost considerably less employment on a proportional basis, than either minor urban or urban areas. Regions with large areas of relatively marginal agricultural land such as the East Cape tended to lose relatively more population and employment than the average, while the minor urban and rural areas of regions containing large urban areas were generally much less affected.
The 1986 to 1991 period saw continued restructuring both in the public and private sectors, as well as deflated agricultural commodity prices, which affected both minor urban and rural areas. Minor urban areas in particular were caught by reduced expenditure by rural sector primary producers, and by large contractions in manufacturing operations. Despite these changes both rural and minor urban areas shared some of the positive changes taking place in the economy as a whole, such as increased employment in many service industries, and increasing employment of women in many industries. The rural and minor urban areas of some regions suffered disproportionate losses in employment and population, but generally speaking decreases in rural employment reflected national trends for particular industries or age groups. It is the above average representation of particular industries and population groups in some regions which largely explains the differences between regions. This does not detract however, from the very real economic and social impacts of dramatic changes in population and employment.
Like part one of this study, part two has shown that there is considerable diversity in the characteristics of rural and minor urban areas, and in the changes occurring within them. Examining these characteristics and changes at the aggregate level masks some of the imponant differences between areas. These differences must be appreciated when attempting to address issues if policies and solutions are to be relevant to local communities and economies.
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Rural Affairs Coordinator
Sector Performance Policy
MAF Policy
Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry
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NEW ZEALAND
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