Building Up Numbers Again
Many farmers in the drought area will have had to sell capital stock, be it ewe hoggets, rising two-tooths or breeding ewes. Depending on the class of stock that has been sold, the time to recover by breeding and minimising the culling of hoggets may be up to seven years.
If ewe hoggets have been sold, then assuming that they would have stayed in the flock until aged ewes, there will be no aged ewes sold until Year 6 and more ewe hoggets would have to be retained until Year 7. Conversely, if aged ewes were sold in a typical flock, it will take three years to recover, as less lambs to cull or sell next year translates to fewer two-tooths the following year.
The graph is a typical mixed aged flock of 2000 ewes retaining 500 hoggets with 120% lambing, dropping to 100% following the drought, normally culling 40% of the ewe lambs but dropping back to 20% in the year following the drought to build up numbers.
A peak in ewe lambs following the drought occurs, but in following years the numbers must be less as total stocking rates become limiting.
The income stream from selling the entire ewe lambs at $30, the prime lambs at $40 and cull ewes at $20, is below. The graph shows that the income is maintained in the drought year, but drops off in the following years as there are fewer lambs to sell, fewer ewes to be mated and more hoggets retained into the flock.
A major problem with a drought is that young stock do no grow out so never achieve their potential. Older stock survive the drought better although teeth wear becomes a major problem. In practice, farmers may sell half of the hoggets and half of the old ewes, and recover the situation by keeping ewes on for longer or buying in ewes to make up numbers.
Options for recovery are:
- Retain more old ewes, culling on constitution only, unless teeth condition is a consideration as for turnip feeding.
- Increase the number of ewe hoggets retained, but this reduces the income from lamb sales.
- Buy aged ewes if the price is right, but this increases expenditure.
- Buy two-tooths if they are compatible with your breeding policy.
- Mate ewe hoggets if the weights are good and they can be grown out to good weights by the two-tooth stage.
Farmers will need to plan how to make up stock numbers in the most cost-effective way. Each property will have different conditions, constraints and lambing percentages but the priority is to get the number of breeding ewes up to normal levels as soon as possible.
Ken Muscroft Taylor
Agricultural Consultant
Agriculture New Zealand
Darfield
Contact for Enquiries
Manager
North Island Regions
Sector Performance Policy
MAF Policy
Hamilton
NEW ZEALAND
Phone: +64 7 957 8313
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