West Coast Forest Industry and Wood Availability Forecast - June 2008
4 West Coast wood availability forecast
A forecast of radiata pine wood availability from 2007 to 2015 has been compiled by combining the harvesting intentions of the two major forest owners on the West Coast, and adding estimated annual volumes from the residual radiata pine plantation forest resource. This residual resource has an estimated area of about 3400 hectares.
Harvesting intentions reflect the forest owners’ current strategies. They can change in accordance with market conditions, company objectives, and enhanced information about the forest resource.
The estimated wood availability from the residual radiata pine resource is based on advice from forestry consultants and managers actively operating in the management and harvesting of West Coast plantation forests. The annual harvestable volume is allocated to pruned sawlogs, unpruned sawlogs and chip logs at a ratio of 20:60:20.
The results from combining the volumes from the harvesting intentions of the two major forest owners, with the estimated volumes from the residual resource, are presented in Table 4.1.
Table 4.1: Estimated actual harvest (2006) and forecast wood availability – radiata pine (cubic metres)
| Year | Pruned sawlogs |
Unpruned sawlogs |
Chip logs | Total volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 52 000 | 146 000 | 22 000 | 220 000 |
| 2007 | 29 000 | 175 000 | 27 000 | 231 000 |
| 2008 | 40 000 | 161 000 | 32 000 | 233 000 |
| 2009 | 42 000 | 141 000 | 30 000 | 213 000 |
| 2010 | 39 000 | 134 000 | 26 000 | 199 000 |
| 2011 | 38 000 | 133 000 | 27 000 | 198 000 |
| 2012 | 37 000 | 132 000 | 27 000 | 196 000 |
| 2013 | 39 000 | 130 000 | 27 000 | 196 000 |
| 2014 | 41 000 | 130 000 | 25 000 | 196 000 |
| 2015 | 43 000 | 127 000 | 26 000 | 196 000 |
Note
The total volumes for 2006 and 2007 in the table above vary slightly from the volumes for those years in Figure 3.3. The volume information is derived from different sources.
A variable area-age class distribution
The radiata pine area-age class distribution (Figure 4.1) shows considerable variability over the years covered by the harvesting forecasts (and beyond). The harvesting intentions information generally assumes harvesting ages of between 28 and 30 years, but the potential for variable annual harvests should be noted.
Figure 4.1: Radiata pine area-annual age class distribution as at 1 April 2006
Source
Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, 2007.
Other species
There are also 394 hectares of “other softwoods” recorded in the NEFD as at 1 April 2006 (MAF 2007) as age 36 years or older, 38 hectares of Douglas-fir recorded aged 41 years or older, and 44 hectares of eucalypts aged 31 years or older. Small volumes could potentially be harvested from these species at irregular intervals if markets arose during the forecast period. These would be additional to the volumes in Table 4.1.
Beyond 2015
The plantation forest resource that accounts for the annual forecast harvests in Table 4.1 through to 2015 is that aged 18 years and older. Figure 4.1 indicates that there is a larger resource area age 14 years or less, but this may not lead to an expanded harvest from about 2020 as there is a four-year period between the two age groups where little planting was undertaken. This period will need to be managed carefully by the industry if a sustainable level of harvest is to be achieved.
Most of this “additional” forest area in the younger age classes is held by small-scale forest owners whose management and harvesting intentions are less well understood, and who may not be purely commercially focused.
In addition to the radiata pine resource, there is a significant resource of cypress species. Most of this has been planted over the last 15 years, but several hundred hectares are 21 to 25 years old. It is anticipated that this cypress resource will be harvested as it attains an age of between 35 and 40 years. This suggests that significant volumes may be harvested from this resource over a period of years from around 2020, but with the bulk of this resource not coming on stream until about 2030.
Previous wood availability forecasts
The new wood availability forecast is a major downwards revision on previous forecasts for the West Coast prepared in 1988, 1992, 1996 and 2000. These forecasts variously suggested that the volume of wood available for harvesting in 2007 may be between 290 000 and 390 000 cubic metres per year. They also suggested that the longer-term (post-2020) sustainable harvest would be between 360 000 and 400 000 cubic metres per year.
Reasons for the change
There are a number of factors that have contributed to this reduction in forecast wood availability. These are:
- downwards revisions of yield tables;
- harvesting at an earlier age than previously anticipated;
- losses through wind throw;
- a variable plantation forest age-class distribution;
- a small decrease in the reported plantation forest area;
- the presence of small areas of species that may not have a market and are therefore not included in the new forecast;
- new planting scenarios associated with earlier forecasts that are now considered very high.
The principal reason for the decrease in forecast available volumes is a major downwards revision of yield tables. Area-weighted yield tables for radiata pine grown on the West Coast that were used in the 1996 and 2000 wood availability forecasts had recoverable volumes of between 365 and 380 cubic metres per hectare for 28-year-old stands. The common range for recoverable yields for radiata pine currently being harvested on the West Coast is now estimated to be between 220 to 280 cubic metres per hectare.
Regional sawlog supply
The existing processing capacity on the West Coast is estimated to be about 250 000 cubic metres of sawlogs per year (including Coastpine) that is, for sawmills and plywood production. The forecast of wood availability from the West Coast suggests that the volume of sawlogs available will decrease from the current level of about 200 000 cubic metres to around 170 000 cubic metres by 2010.
However, wood processing plants rarely operate at full capacity and West Coast sawmills and International Panel & Lumber (West Coast) Ltd process significant volumes of logs sourced from other regions. This reduces the notional deficit between local log availability and processing capacity, but the key point is that the local sawlog supply is expected to decrease by about 15 percent over the next few years.
Significant volumes of sawlogs currently move both from the West Coast to Nelson and Canterbury, and to the West Coast (mainly pruned logs) from the same regions. The backloading opportunity does assist the movement of export, chip and unpruned sawlogs out of the region through transportation cost savings.
Contact for Enquiries
MAF Information Services
Pastoral House
25 The Terrace
PO Box 2526
Wellington, NEW ZEALAND
Fax: +64 4 894 0721
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