Otago and Southland Wood Availability Forecasts for the Period 2007–2040
Concluding comments
Wood availability from the Otago and Southland Wood Supply Region’s planted forest resource will be relatively static for the next decade. After 2015, increases in wood availability are expected to result in increased log supply with the potential for significant volume increases leading up to 2020.
Most of the potential increase in wood availability from 2016 on will come from the region’s small-scale forest growers who established forests during the 1990s. The actual timing of the harvest from these forests will depend on market conditions and the decisions by many small-scale owners.
After 2015, the combined Otago and Southland regional harvest has the potential to increase from the current level of about 1.5 million cubic metres to about 2.8 million cubic metres from around 2020.
Market conditions and logistical constraints (availability of logging crews, transport capacity and wood processing capacity) will limit how quickly the additional wood availability from small-scale owners’ forests can be harvested towards 2020.
Some owners will be motivated to harvest early while others may decide to grow their forests on longer. Therefore the harvesting of the post-1990 forest plantings is likely to be spread out over a long period. If log prices increased during this post-2015 period of more plentiful wood availability, harvesting rates could quickly rise to meet demand. Likewise, low log prices would lead to delayed harvesting.
Depending on the rate of harvesting from the region’s post-1990 forests, wood availability is expected to decrease after 2030. This will result in a drop in log volumes once the post-1990s forests have been harvested.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry is currently finalising a report on the Otago and Southland Forestry Industry, in association with the Southern Wood Council and the major growers and processors in the region. This report will contain the wood availability forecasts discussed in this paper, along with a description of the region’s forests, wood processing industries and infrastructure. The report will also describe the opportunities and constraints facing the forest industry in the south of New Zealand. This report is expected to be published by March 2008.
Contact for Enquiries
Parnell Trost
Policy Analyst
MAF Policy
Natural Resources Group
PO Box 5648
Dunedin
Ph: 03 951 4705
Fax: 03 951 4711
Cell: 029 951 4705
Contact this person
