Otago and Southland Wood Availability Forecasts for the Period 2007–2040
Wood availability forecasts for the combined Otago and Southland estate
The combined radiata pine forecasts for Otago and Southland are presented for Scenario 3 (Figure 32), Scenario 4 (Figures 33, 34 and 35) and Scenario 5 (Figure 36).
Scenario 3
The third scenario is based on non-declining yield, and a target rotation of 30 years. Figure 32 indicates that wood availability from the Otago and Southland regions will increase only marginally over the next 10 years. This scenario shows there is potential for wood availability to increase after 2016.
Figure 32: Otago and Southland combined wood availability under scenario 3 – split by ownership category
Scenario 4
The fourth scenario is based on a split non-declining yield, with a target rotation age of 30 years. The results of this scenario are similar to scenario 3 until 2021 (Figures 33–35).
Figure 33: Otago and Southland combined wood availability under scenario 4 – all owners
Figure 34: Otago and Southland combined wood availability under scenario 4 – split by ownership category
Figure 35: Otago and Southland combined wood availability under scenario 4 – by log product
Scenario 5
Different wood availability profiles are generated if the target rotation age is modified. Figure 36 indicates a band of possible wood availability profiles. A common feature is the limited potential for increase through to 2012. After this there is the opportunity for a substantial increase as the large area planted by small-scale owners in the 1990s matures and is available for harvest.
Figure 36: Otago and Southland combined wood availability under scenario 5 – different target rotation ages
Contact for Enquiries
Parnell Trost
Policy Analyst
MAF Policy
Natural Resources Group
PO Box 5648
Dunedin
Ph: 03 951 4705
Fax: 03 951 4711
Cell: 029 951 4705
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