Otago and Southland Wood Availability Forecasts for the Period 2007–2040
Introduction
These forecasts show the range of harvest volumes potentially available from the planted production forests in the Otago and Southland regions for the period 2007–2040.
The wood availability forecasts are based on each region’s forest resource and the forecasting assumptions described later in this report. The forecasts have been developed by incorporating the harvesting intentions of the region’s large-scale forest owners (those with 1000 hectares of forest or more):
• Blakely Pacific Limited;
• Cainard Forestry LLC;
• Calder Stewart Industries Limited;
• City Forests Limited;
• Craigpine Timber Company Limited;
• Ernslaw One Limited;
• Fulton Hogan Limited;
• Invercargill City Council;
• JPS / JPS II;
• Matariki Forests;
• PF Olsen Ltd (representing Evergrow Properties Ltd and Vela Forest Partnership);
• Southland District Council;
• South Wood Export Limited (including Southland Plantation Forest Company of New Zealand and Hardwood Forests Limited); and
• Wenita Forest Products Limited.
The forecasts incorporate the views of the region’s forest managers and consultants. This feedback was critical for ensuring that the forecasts represent a realistic range of future wood availability scenarios.
Five scenarios have been modelled to indicate the potential range of future wood availability. A key issue is the timing of harvesting by the small-scale forest owners. Harvesting will be driven by a range of factors including individual forest owners’ objectives, forest age, log prices, demand by local wood processing plants, and perceptions about future log prices and future wood supply.
The scenarios indicate that there are many different ways for the forest estate in Otago and Southland to be harvested. It needs to be recognised that forests are managed to maximise the benefits to the enterprise that owns them. Each enterprise has its own harvest strategy based on the owners’ objectives, market conditions and the forest estate that it owns or manages. Any changes in harvesting strategies by forest owners affect the age-structure and maturity of the forests they own. This in turn feeds back directly into future wood availability.
There are different levels of uncertainty associated with the wood availability from each component of the estate. While the volumes forecast from larger forest owners are subject to alteration because of changes in harvest intentions or changes in the resource description (areas and yields), a higher level of confidence can generally be attached to these figures than for the small-scale owner’s estate. Not only are harvest intentions less clear for small-scale owners, their resource descriptions are likely to be less accurate.
Contact for Enquiries
Parnell Trost
Policy Analyst
MAF Policy
Natural Resources Group
PO Box 5648
Dunedin
Ph: 03 951 4705
Fax: 03 951 4711
Cell: 029 951 4705
Contact this person
