Hawkes Bay wood availability forecasts for the period 2007–2040
Overview
There is a well-established forest growing industry in the Hawkes Bay Wood Supply Region (referred to as “the Hawkes Bay Region”, or “Hawkes Bay”) which includes the land areas of the Wairoa, Hastings and Central Hawkes Bay Districts and Napier City.
Pan Pac Forest Products Ltd is the dominant processor, with a large integrated TMP (thermo-mechanical pulp) mill and sawmill complex at Whirinaki, and a large remanufacturing plant in Napier. Several other private sawmills are located in this region.
To assist with future regional forest industry planning, the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MAF) has compiled wood availability forecasts for the Hawkes Bay Region, covering the period 2007 to 2040. These forecasts have been produced in association with the region’s major forest growers. The forecasts show the range of harvest volumes potentially available from the planted forest estate of both large and small-scale growers. The forecasts are supply-based, but incorporate the short to medium-term intentions of the large owners. In utilising these forecasts, users need to recognise that the ultimate determinant of harvesting activity at any particular time is the demand for logs.
The forecasts indicate that the availability of radiata pine from the Hawkes Bay will remain relatively static over the next decade (2007–2015). While the forecasts indicate a static supply during this period, it is important to recognise that short-term fluctuations are possible, due to changes in market conditions.
Beyond 2015, the forecasts show that an increase in wood availability is possible after 2016, when the Hawkes Bay regional harvest has the potential to increase from the current level of about 1.7 million cubic metres, to around 3 million cubic metres after 2021. Most of the potential increase in wood availability during this period is from the small-scale forest growers who established forests during the 1990s.
The actual timing of the harvest from these forests will depend on the decisions of a large number of small-scale owners. Market conditions and logistical constraints (availability of logging crews, transport capacity, and wood processing capacity) will limit how quickly the additional wood availability from small-scale owners’ forests could be harvested in that period.
In the later part of the forecast period (post 2034) the total harvest is projected to decline. This is in line with the age structure of the resource. The timing (and level) of decrease will depend on the rate at which the regions’ post-1990 forests are harvested, the extent to which they are replanted, and also the level of new land planting. The forecasts are based on no new land planting.
While there is limited potential to increase harvest volumes over the next ten years, there are opportunities to more fully utilise the available resource. A number of mills have moved (or are moving) to process some of the lower-quality logs that are currently exported.
Species
Radiata pine makes up 98 percent (129 000 hectares) and Douglas-fir less than 1 percent (1000 hectares) of the forest area in the Hawkes Bay Region. There are nearly 2000 hectares of other exotic hardwood and softwood species in the Hawkes Bay; these have not been modelled in this analysis. The forest areas (rounded to the nearest 1000 hectares) are from the National Exotic Forest Description (NEFD) as at 1 April 2005.
Contact for Enquiries
MAF Information Services
Pastoral House
25 The Terrace
PO Box 2526
Wellington, NEW ZEALAND
Fax: +64 4 894 0721
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