Hawkes Bay wood availability forecasts for the period 2007–2040
Concluding comments
Wood availability from the region’s planted forest resource will be relatively static for the next decade. After 2016, increases in wood availability are expected to result in increased log supply with the potential for significant volume increases leading up to 2021.
Most of the potential increase in wood availability from 2016 on will come from the region’s small-scale forest growers who established forests during the 1990s. The actual timing of the harvest from these forests will depend on market conditions and the decisions of a large number of small-scale owners.
After 2016, the harvest in the Hawkes Bay has the potential to increase from 1.9 million cubic metres to around 3.0 million cubic metres from 2021.
Market conditions and logistical constraints (availability of logging crews, transport capacity, and wood processing capacity) will limit how quickly the additional available wood from small-scale owners’ forests can be harvested.
Some owners will be motivated to harvest early while others may decide to grow their forests on longer. It is therefore likely that the harvesting of the post-1990 forest plantings will be spread out over a longer period than might otherwise be the case. If log prices increased during this post-2016 period of more plentiful wood availability, harvesting rates could quickly rise to meet demand. Likewise with low log prices, owners would delay harvesting.
Depending on the rate of harvesting from the region’s post-1990 forests, wood availability is expected to decrease after 2035 leading to a drop in log volumes once the post-1990s forests have been harvested.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry is currently finalising a report on the Hawkes Bay Forestry Industry, in association with the Hawkes Bay Forest Group and the major growers and processors in the region. This report will contain these wood availability forecasts along with descriptions of the regions forests, wood processing industries and infrastructure. The report will also describe the opportunities and constraints facing the forest industry in the Hawkes Bay. This report is expected to be published by April 2008.
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