East Coast wood availability forecasts for the period 2007-2040
Overview
There is an established forest growing industry in the East Coast Wood Supply Region (referred to as “the East Coast Region”, or “East Coast”) which is the land area of the Gisborne District. The industry was successful in attracting new investment for planting in the 1990s.
The main wood processors in the region are Juken New Zealand Ltd which has a large laminated veneer lumber and sawmill complex in Gisborne, Ernslaw One Ltd which has a medium-sized sawmill, and there are other private sawmills located in this area. New wood processing developments are proposed.
To assist with future regional forest industry planning, the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MAF) has compiled wood availability forecasts for the East Coast Region, covering the period 2007 to 2040. These forecasts have been undertaken in association with the region’s major forest growers. The forecasts show the range of harvest volumes potentially available from the planted forest estate of both large and small-scale growers. The forecasts are supply-based, but incorporate the short to medium-term intentions of the large owners. In utilising these forecasts, users need to recognise that the ultimate determinant of harvesting activity at any particular point in time is the demand for logs.
The forecasts indicate that the availability of radiata pine from the East Coast forest estate will steadily increase over the next 12 years, despite a drop-off in the large-scale forest owners’ harvest intentions for the period 2011–2013. While the overall forecasts indicate an increasing supply curve during this period, it is important to recognise that short-term fluctuations are possible due to changes in market conditions.
From 2007 to 2013 there is a gradual increase in the East Coast regional harvest from 1.1 million cubic metres to around 2.0 million cubic metres per year. From this point forward the East Coast regional harvest has the potential to significantly increase to around 3.4 million cubic metres after 2020. Most of the potential increase in wood availability during this period is from the small-scale forest growers who established forests during the 1990s.
The actual timing of the harvest from these forests will depend on market conditions and the decisions of a number of small-scale owners. Market conditions and logistical constraints (availability of logging crews, transport capacity, and wood processing capacity) will limit how quickly the additional wood available from small-scale owners’ forests can be harvested in that period.
In the later part of the forecast period (post-2034) the total harvest is projected to decline. This is in line with the age structure of the resource. The timing (and level) of decrease will depend on the rate at which the region’s post-1990 forests are harvested, the extent to which they are replanted, and also the level of new land planting. The forecasts are based on no new land planting.
Other species
Radiata pine makes up 98 percent (152 000 hectares) and Douglas-fir 1 percent (1800 hectares) of the forest area in the East Coast. Species other than radiata pine and Douglas-fir have not been modelled in this analysis. There are nearly 3000 hectares of other exotic hardwood and softwood species in the East Coast. The forest areas (rounded to the nearest 1000 hectares) are from the National Exotic Forest Description (NEFD) as at 1 April 2005.
Contact for Enquiries
John Vaney
Regional Team Leader
Sector Performance Policy
Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry
PO Box 1340
Rotorua
Phone 07 921 3407
Cell 029 921 3407
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