Central North Island wood availability forecasts for the period 2008–2040
Overview
These forecasts show the range of harvest volumes potentially available from the planted production forests in the Central North Island region for the period 2008–2040.
The wood availability forecasts are based on the region’s forest resource and the forecasting assumptions described later in this report. The forecasts have been developed incorporating the harvesting intentions of the regions’ large-scale forest owners (those with 1000 hectares of forest or more):
- Hancock Natural Resource Group;
- Kaingaroa Timberlands;
- Winstone Pulp International;
- Lake Taupo and Rotoaira Forestry Trusts;
- Crown Forestry;
- Matariki;
- Global Forest Partners;
- Blakely Pacific;
- Taharoa C Incorporation.
The forecasts incorporate the views of the region’s forest managers and consultants. This feedback was critical for ensuring that the forecasts represent a realistic range of future wood availability scenarios.
Five scenarios have been modelled to indicate the potential range of future wood availability. A key issue is the timing of harvesting by the small-scale forest owners, which will be driven by a range of factors including individual forest owners’ objectives, forest age, log prices, demand by local wood processing plants, and perceptions about future log prices and future wood supply.
The scenarios indicate there are many different ways for the forest estate in the Central North Island to be harvested. It needs to be recognised that forests are managed to maximise the benefits to the enterprise that owns them. Each enterprise has its own harvest strategy based on the owners’ objectives, market conditions and the forest estate that it owns or manages. Any change in harvesting strategies by forest owners affects the age-structure and maturity of the forests it owns. This in turn feeds back directly into future wood availability.
Different levels of certainty are associated with the wood availability from each component of the estate. The volumes forecast from the large-scale owners’ forests are subject to change because of changes in harvest intentions or changes in the resource description (areas and yields). Yet they have greater certainty than those forecast from the small-scale owners’ forests. Not only are harvest intentions less certain for small-scale owners, the resource description is also likely to be less accurate.
Contact for Enquiries
Gerard Horgan
MAF Policy
Sector Performance Policy
PO Box 1340
Rotorua
Ph: 07 921 3403
Fax: 07 921 3402
Cell: 029 921 3403
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