Central North Island wood availability forecasts for the period 2008–2040
Concluding comments
The forecasts indicate that the availability of radiata pine from the Central North Island forest estate will steadily increase over the next 12 years. Between 2008 and 2016 there is a gradual increase in the Central North Island regional harvest from 7.5 million cubic metres to around 10.2 million cubic metres per year. After 2016 increases in wood availability are expected to result in increased log supply with the potential for significant volume increases to around 12.7 million cubic metres per year after 2020.
The roundwood removal statistics indicate the current levels of harvest in the Central North Island are up to 2 million tonnes per annum below the volumes harvested in 2006 and 2007. This suggests that most, if not all the projected increases in wood availability during the next 8 to 10 years could be accommodated by the region’s existing physical infrastructure, depending on the level of wood flowing into the Central North Island region.
Most of the potential increase in wood availability from 2016 on will come from the region’s small-scale forest growers who established forests during the 1990s. The actual timing of the harvest from these forests will depend on market conditions and the decisions of a large number of small-scale owners.
Market conditions and logistical constraints (immediate availability of logging crews, transport capacity, and wood processing capacity) will limit how quickly the additional wood availability from small-scale owners’ forests can be harvested leading up to 2020.
Some owners will be motivated to harvest early while others may decide to grow their forests for longer. This is likely to spread the harvesting of the post-1990 forest plantings out over a longer period than might be the case if the forests were harvested at rotation age. Greater harvesting during this period could have the effect of dampening log prices. On the other hand, if international log prices increased during this period of increasing wood availability, then harvesting rates would rise more quickly to meet international demand.
Depending on the rate of harvesting from the region’s post-1990 forests, wood availability is expected to decrease after 2034 leading to a drop in log volumes once the post-1990s forests have been harvested.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry is currently finalising a report on the Central North Island Forestry Industry, in association with the major growers and processors in the region. This report will contain these wood availability forecasts along with descriptions of the region’s forests, wood processing industries and infrastructure. This report will also describe the opportunities and constraints facing the forest industry on the Central North Island, and is expected to be published by October 2008.
Contact for Enquiries
Gerard Horgan
MAF Policy
Sector Performance Policy
PO Box 1340
Rotorua
Ph: 07 921 3403
Fax: 07 921 3402
Cell: 029 921 3403
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