Canterbury wood availability forecasts for the period 2007–2040
Concluding comments
The wood availability forecasts indicate that the harvested volumes of radiata pine are likely to remain static for the next ten years at around 800 000 cubic metres per year, with the potential for additional wood from the small-scale forest owners compensating for reductions in harvested wood from the large-scale forest owners.
Beyond 2017, there is potential for a significant increase in the harvested volume of radiata pine to a level approaching 1.3 million cubic metres per year for nearly 20 years (under scenario 4) and perhaps beyond, depending on trends in new planting and deforestation. However, this increase is driven by the maturing of the resource planted by a multitude of small-scale forest owners during the 1990s. This resource was not necessarily planted purely for commercial purposes, and the timing of the harvesting is therefore more uncertain.
The quantity and quality of that resource are also less well understood and may provide some challenges for wood processors. In addition, to utilise this resource wood processors will have a more complicated task sourcing logs from a large number of small-scale forest owners, each providing irregular or one-off harvests. To date, co-operative forest management models have not found favour among small-scale forest owners in New Zealand.
Utilising the potential provided by increasing levels of radiata pine wood availability in ten years’ time will not be without its obstacles.
The wood availability forecasts indicate that the harvested volumes of Douglas-fir are also likely to remain static at about 60 000 cubic metres per year through to about 2015. There is potential for a significant increase in harvested Douglas-fir volumes beyond 2025, again driven by the resource of the small-scale forest owners.
Contact for Enquiries
MAF Information Services
Pastoral House
25 The Terrace
PO Box 2526
Wellington, NEW ZEALAND
Fax: +64 4 894 0721
Contact this person
