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Future Focus: Signposts to Success for New Zealand's Primary Industries

MAF's strategic foresight project in 2007 identified six key global drivers of change over the next 20 years, and the strategic risks and opportunities arising for New Zealand's agriculture, food and forestry sectors, and in the biosecurity setting.

Contents

• Introduction: Key Risks and Opportunities
• Six Key drivers of Change
  • 1. Global Warming, Climate Change, Extreme Weather: “Adapt or bust”
    • Key impacts of global warming
    • What will New Zealand be like?
    • Indirect effects – risks and uncertainties
    • Opportunities?
  • 2. Energy Cost and Supply: Beyond cheap oil
    • What is the global picture?
    • How exposed is New Zealand?
  • 3. Geopolitical Power Shifts and International Trade and Investment
    • Power blocs and sustainability politics?
    • Globalisation constrained?
    • What are the implications for New Zealand land-based value chains?
  • 4. Ecosystem Degradation and Water Quality and Availability: Natural capital at risk
    • What is water worth?
    • Biosecurity and sustainability of natural resources
    • Risks and opportunities?
  • 5. Demographic Shifts: Older, urbanised world
    • What does this mean for New Zealand land-based industries?
  • 6. Technological Advances: Innovation for success
    • Global future insight
    • Technology needs of New Zealand land-based industries
• Summary: Top 10 Strategic Threats and Opportunities
• Next Steps
• Further Reading
• Appendices
  • Appendix 1 - Influence Diagram: Complex impacts of Drivers for biofuel development
  • Appendix 2 - Impact Map: Energy Cost of Use and Supply
  • Appendix 3 - Impact Map: Rural Business and Community
  • Appendix 4 - Scenario Development: “Locked-down World” or “Think Global Act Local”

• Download as a PDF [PDF  887K]

Disclaimer

While every effort has been made to ensure the information in this publication is accurate, the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MAF) does not accept any responsibility or liability for error of fact, omission, interpretation or opinion that may be present, nor for the consequences of any decisions based on this information. Any view or opinion expressed does not necessarily represent the view of MAF. While MAF has exercised all reasonable skill and care in the preparation of information in this report, MAF does not accept any liability in contract, tort or otherwise for any loss, damage, injury, or expense, whether direct, indirect or consequential, arising out of the provision of information in this report.

Contact for Enquiries

Strategy and Performance Group
Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry
Pastoral House
25 The Terrace
PO Box 2526, Wellington

Tel: +64 4 894 0593
Fax: +64 4 894 0738 Contact this person