Background Reports and Analysis

Agriculture in a New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme

  • Projected Impacts of the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme at the Farm Level [ 82K PDF]
    This paper summarises the results of a range of analyses carried out by MAF on the potential impacts of the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme (NZETS) at the individual farm level. The purpose of these analyses is to inform the policy process and indicate how typical farms of varying types could be financially affected by the NZETS.
    Updates:
    • One change which aims to improve the consistency in the analytical approach impacted the results for the Pipfruit model. The earlier Pipfruit results took into account the impacts from downstream processing costs, which were not included in any of the other analyses in the report. These earlier results for the Pipfruit model will be re-published in an addendum that will also include new results for the Dairy model taking into account downstream processing costs.
    • Other changes in the report relate to the text and include:
      • Updating to reflect recent Government decisions relating sector entry and allocation;
      • Additional context related to the potential for variation around the impacts estimated here, and with respect to the potential gains from nitrification inhibitors;
      • Making explicit the key assumption that flow-on costs from downstream processing were not taken into account.

Forestry in a New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme

  • KPMG review of MAF deforestation accounting opinion
    MAF has produced an opinion on how a forest/land owner who has no exemptions from applicable accounting standards should classify and present in Financial Statements a deforestation penalty under the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme (NZETS).
  • Indicative Forest Sequestration Tables
    The Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MAF) has requested estimates of carbon stocks by stand age for various tree species and tending regimes on various sites. These carbon stock tables are intended to be used as illustrative examples of carbon sequestration through afforestation.
  • Area of Forest "at risk" from deforestation
    Large-scale deforestation of planted forests is a new phenomenon. This report uses a range of methods to determine the "profitability" of switching land use from forestry to agriculture. All suggest that switching from forestry to pastoral use is commercially justifiable only if the land is capable of sustaining intensive stock production (in some cases) or dairying. Between 170,000 and 280,000 ha of forest land may be deforested over the next 15 years.
    Download the full report as a PDF [395KB PDF]
  • Deforestation Intentions Survey
    These reports provide a structured review of the deforestation intentions of large-scale forest owners (owners with more than 10 000 ha of forest), and an estimate of deforestation by smaller owners. The first survey was undertaken in December 2006 when ETS proposals were under discussion but largely undecided, and the second between November 2007 and January 2008 and after the announcement of the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) but before the proposed policy has become law.
  • Financial returns and forestry planting rates
    Over the last twelve years the annual rate of new plantings of commercial forestry has been trending downward and since 2004 there has been a decline in the replanting rate. "Expected" forestry financial returns over the past decade were compared with the recorded areas of new planting and total planting for each year. This showed a clear positive correlation between returns and both the new planting and total planting rates - with higher expected returns associated with higher levels of forest establishment.
    Download the full report as a PDF [75KB PDF]
  • Further Material on Pre 1990 Forests
    This paper discusses a number of issues relating to the treatment of pre 1990 forest in the NZ ETS. All sections include discussion of options that have been suggested by key stakeholder groups, especially Māori.

Legislation and Regulations

Sustainable Land Management and Climate Change

  • Climate change and agricultural production
    New Zealands climate is likely to change over this century in response to increasing greenhouse gas emissions. We need to know how those changes will affect land managers and primary production systems. A report is now available that takes that first step in understanding the effect on agricultural production: Costs and Benefits of Climate Change and Adaptation to Climate Change in New Zealand: Agriculture: What do we know so far?
  • Climate Change Policy: Measures to address - Agriculture Sector GHG Emissions - Bruce White Report
    This report, commissioned by MAF, assesses a selected range of policy instruments for mitigation of greenhouse gases in agriculture.
    These include:
    • Government pricing of emissions
    • Cap and trade models
    • Offset Schemes
    • Mandatory emission standards
    • Voluntary emission reduction and reporting programmes
    • Extension activities
    • Agricultural sector research and development.
    The report assesses these options against evaluation criteria and looks at short term options and longer term strategy.
    The report was produced by Bruce White, former economist at the Reserve Bank.
    Download the full report as a PDF [845KB PDF]
  • Voluntary greenhouse gas reporting - Feasibility study
    Voluntary greenhouse gas reporting was identified in the Sustainable Land Management and Climate Change discussion document as a method through which farmers could estimate their greenhouse gas emissions and report them to a central registry. Such a system would provide farmers with a tool to identify and track emissions, and to record and verify emissions reductions. MAF commissioned an in-depth feasibility study of a VGGR system, and preparation of a business case for the system. This included advice on the likely use of the VGGR for farmers, incentives for uptake, and optimal system design.
    It should be noted that:
    • The report was commissioned to assist the development of policy advice;
    • MAF has not accepted all the recommendations in the report;
    • MAF is committed to the role and ongoing development of Overseer.
    Download the full report as a PDF [1.0M PDF]

Archived Reports

  • Archive
    Documents on how climate change is likely to affect agriculture and forestry in New Zealand placed on the MAF website prior to July 2005.

Contact for Enquiries

Sustainable Land Management and Climate Change
MAF
Pastoral House
25 The Terrace
PO Box 2526, Wellington
Tel: 0800 CLIMATE (254 628)
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